Sizing up Iowa

Of the dramatic events that characterized the Iowa caucus, one wonders what makes the bigger story. Is it the fact that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), with a huge war chest and pristine establishment credentials, failed to even make it a race? Or the fact that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), a man who happens to be black, won over an overwhelmingly white electorate? Ex-Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) must be congratulated on running a spirited campaign in the final moments, but his come-from-behind tactics may make him appear to be too much of an attack dog to maintain a presidential demeanor.

One thing is for sure: Obama’s message of positive change has resonated with Democrats. All he needs to do at this point is continue to voice this message to win. After all, if he can carry a somewhat conservative state like Iowa, there is no telling what he’ll be able to do in more liberal territory. The other candidates will either have to eclipse his message or knock him off beat, both of which will be difficult to accomplish after the win in Iowa. Shocking scenario: Former Vice President Al Gore, sensing blood in the water from a wounded Hillary Clinton, breaks a tacit agreement with the Clintons to sit this one out and enters the fray in the next few weeks. He captures the Democratic nomination and invites Obama to be his running mate. Together they form an unbeatable combination and take the White House.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s (R) situation is a bit more tenuous. Riding the evangelical surge might work in Iowa, but the aw-shucks preacher-boy gambit will be much harder to sell in other parts of the country. He might be a victim of his own spin, in that he will cause a backlash against his campaign if evangelicals see him as bending to other segments of the Republican constituency who do not wear their religious affiliation on their sleeves. If so, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who already enjoys national credibility, stands to benefit. Note to Mitt Romney: You are seen as being too plastic. Money alone will not win you the nomination. You greatly outspent Huckabee and still lost by a landslide in Iowa. That should send you a message that it’s time to let your hair down a bit and start to connect with voters.

The upsets in both parties clearly reveal one thing. At this stage in history, America wants a leader, not a politician or a CEO. Whoever can convey their leadership ability most convincingly will ultimately get the job of president.