The Campaign So Far

Here are some things I believe to be true about the campaign so far and some things that are still a mystery to me.

Things I believe:

•    Melding Christmas and the Iowa caucuses is a bad idea. Mike Huckabee probably did the best with his Christmas commercial; Hillary Clinton probably did the worst. But all the commercials were an unhappy intrusion into the Christmas season. Let’s leave Christmas alone next time, eh?
•    Immigration is a big deal to Republicans, the Iraq war is a big deal to Democrats, the economy is a big deal to everybody else. The Republican base cares deeply about illegal immigration, which explains Romney’s success so far in Iowa (that and a lot of money). To a certain extent, Iraq is what is helping Obama in Iowa and has tripped up Hillary. But nobody is really talking about a plan to fix an economy that may start stalling out next year.
•    Earned media is more important than paid media: No doubt, television commercials matter. But Mike Huckabee, a cable media star, has vaulted to the top of the polls by appearing endlessly on such shows as MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Rudy Giuliani’s numbers actually went down in New Hampshire as he ran ads. Romney’s campaign commercials haven’t seemed to blunt Huckabee’s charge in Iowa.
•    The race, religion and gender of the candidates will play a role in how people vote in the primaries.

Things that are still a mystery to me:

•    I don’t know the exact role that race, religion and gender will play in the actual vote. I think Obama will do well in South Carolina because of the large black vote, but I am not sure. I think some people will vote against Romney and Giuliani because of their religions but I am not sure what the number is. I don’t know how Hillary will do with married women, but my own focus groups tell me not as well as people think.
•    I don’t know if the early primary schedule means that an Iowa win will slingshot the winner to an easy victory, or if it will just scramble it up more. If Huckabee wins Iowa and Romney wins New Hampshire, what the hell does that mean for Feb. 5.
•    I don’t know if Rudy’s “big state” strategy will work or won’t work. We do know that if he had played in Iowa and lost big to Romney, it would have been bad, so skipping it seems like the right strategy. On the other hand, losing to Ron Paul in any primary is not a good thing. The good news for the Giuliani campaign is that this was all part of their plan. Time will tell if it was a good plan.
•    I don’t know how John Edwards’s union members will do in the caucuses. My guess is that they will be pretty good at intimidating the yuppies who make up the bulk of the Obama campaign. I also don’t what promises Hillary has been making to Joe Biden, Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd to get their supporters to vote for her after they don’t meet the 15 percent threshold. Horse-trading vs. union thuggery? What wins? Either way, Obama’s folks could be squeezed out.
•    I don’t know how Ron Paul does. Money talks and … you know what walks — and guess what? Paul has the money, and lots of it. My guess is that he will do better in New Hampshire than people guess, but that is just my guess.