A Strange Scenario

Try this one on for size.

John McCain begins to move up in Iowa and comes in a decent third or even second.

Hillary wins Iowa and the train begins to leave the station OR Obama cleans up and leaves everyone else in the dust.

But then we come to New Hampshire, where the undeclared, independent vote has gone from less than 30 percent in 1996 to 45 percent in 2007.

Suddenly, the real focus is on the Republican contest.

The crazy situation could arise (although it’s a bit far-fetched) where the Democrats had pretty much decided their race and the independents flocked to McCain. Remember, McCain beat Bush in 2000 among independents by 62 percent to 19. Pat Buchanan beat Dole 27 percent to 18 in ’96 and tied President Bush 48 percent to 48 in 1992. The problem, of course, for the Republicans is that New Hampshire has become increasingly more Democratic with the 2006 elections. And, clearly, the Iraq war will not help any of the Republicans, especially McCain.

Nevertheless, independents play big time in the Granite State and there may be a surprise around the corner come next January. Odds still favor the Democrats to soak up that independent vote, but who knows — it could be McCain, or even my personal favorite for a long-shot bid, Mike Huckabee.