Going to Chicago

For the second time in a week, the Democratic presidential candidates gathered in Chicago to debate their vision for the future. While it may just be a coincidence that they happened to find themselves so often in America’s greatest city, they are smart to target it. Illinois staying blue in the next election isn’t a forgone conclusion.

To be sure, the trend hasn’t been positive for Republicans of late. George Bush has made a mess of it there. Too much Texas machismo doesn’t play well in the City of Big Shoulders. As a White Sox fan, I took great pleasure in their sweep of the Astros. And I wasn’t the only one.

But still, with the right Republican nominee and the right Democratic nominee, Illinois could still be in play. Illinois veered sharply to the left after the scandals of the George Ryan administration. Republican corruption was enough to swing independents to the Democrats. But Democratic corruption, coupled with Democratic incompetence, has proven to be an even more toxic combination. The rumors of an impending indictment of Gov. Rod Blagojevich are all the rage in Illinois, and his relationship with the Democratic legislature is even worse than Bush’s relationship with the Democratic Congress. Even Mayor Daley has thrown his hands up in disgust at the level of incompetence.

For Republicans to take advantage of this opportunity, they need to come up with a strategy that unites the conservative base and the more moderate suburban voters. Unfortunately, these two groups have been at each other’s throats for close to a generation, and the infighting has diminished the political clout of the Republican Party greatly.

The right Presidential nominee, someone like a Rudy Giuliani, could bring these groups together. Giuliani’s tough stance on crime and his correct approach to taxes, plus his experience as a big-city reformer, could be a winner. Now, let’s not kid ourselves. Chicagoans have no great love for New York. But Giuliani understands ethnic voters that make up much of Cook County. And many of these ethnics are migrating out to the far suburbs, including DuPage and Will County. His message of security, safety and reform will resonate with these voters.

Of course, this all depends on the Democratic nomination of either Hillary Clinton or John Edwards. If Obama gets it, Illinois stays blue.

But Republicans shouldn’t write off Illinois just yet. With the right combination of factors, they have a shot at taking it back.