What Now for McCain?

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) shook up his campaign team yesterday and replaced his current management with the architect of his improbable 2000 presidential campaign. Commentators are focusing on his lack of money in the bank and the instability caused by the staff moves as reasons to count him out. I think those criticisms miss the mark. Money and stability are important, but the bigger challenge for his new team will be to fashion a sharper message that will allow him to  appeal to a broader constituency within the Republican Party and Republican-leaning independents.

First to stability: Every campaign gets one “do over.” This is McCain’s. Winning campaigns in the past have shaken up their staff — successfully, in many cases. The question is whether the new management can induce the changes necessary for the campaign to begin to gain momentum and traction. 

Second is money. The campaign needs to increase fundraising and it also needs to drastically reduce expenses. They have to do a lot more with a lot less. They will need to rely on volunteers. They will probably have to shorten their geographical reach and focus on fewer primaries, especially the first three (Question: Will they continue to compete in Iowa?) They will certainly have to take chances and look to generate as much “free media” as possible. I suspect we will see the senator on even more interview and talk shows.

Finally, they have to sharpen his message. McCain does not fit in any ideological box. He has a solid conservative voting record, but also reaches out to legislate with Democrats. This should be appealing to voters, but so far, he has been blamed by conservatives for working with Democrats and by moderates for “selling out” to conservatives. The biggest challenge of his campaign will be to frame a message that shows him to be a practical conservative who believes in working with moderates and Democrats to solve the key problems the nation faces.

What else must be part of his political profile? First, he still has the best “story” of any Republican candidate — Annapolis grad from an old military family, Vietnam war hero, experienced legislator. The public wants to feel comfortable with their president. McCain must try harder to give them that comfort level. Second, his electability quotient is still high. Despite all of the problems of the Bush administration, the GOP, and his own campaign, he runs ahead of, or even with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), the likely Democratic nominee. Third is his principled stance on issues. No one accuses McCain of failing to confront tough issues. The campaign needs to convince  voters who doubt his views on some issues that he nevertheless can be counted on to do the right thing for the country. This leads in to a fourth theme of strong leadership in difficult times.

Finally, they must remember that no one has yet caught fire on the GOP side. The electorate is in flux. Most voters are still open to new information. Lots can change.

Just ask Howard Dean.