In just 14 days, a new president will be sworn in and a new era will begin in American politics.
Unfortunately for President-elect Obama, President Bush and the Republicans have decided to leave one hell of a mess behind. In fact, the only thing missing from the “socio-geopolitical-economic Armageddon” I will now fondly refer to as the Bush Presidency are swarms of locusts (and with 14 days left, I’m not counting this little parting gift out).
So as one unimaginably bad administration leaves Washington, it is only fitting that we begin the New Year with a Top 10 list of predictions of what I believe we have to look forward to during President Obama’s first year in office. Drum roll, please …
10. President Obama signs into law the largest stimulus package in U.S. history by Feb. 1 (give or take a few days), with overwhelming support in both houses of Congress. The economy will “painfully and slowly” start to come back by the end of the year, shifting the political debate from concerns over whether we are spending enough to concerns over whether we are spending too much.
9. President Obama signs into law historic healthcare reform (nearly universal) within the first five months, with conservative Republicans balking but a coalition of business/labor/healthcare activists helping to seal the deal.
8. Business and labor (and their congressional and political supporters) go to war over EFCA (Employee Free Choice Act, or “card check”). It will be fought publicly, on the ground and on the nation’s airwaves, and it will prove to be the single biggest political battle in Washington. Of course, look to the Senate to be ground zero. As for who wins, for now it’s just too close to call, but if EFCA’s political and labor supporters can build broad public support, they will win.
7. The need for a second, much larger auto bailout emerges as another major political battle by mid-year. The Republicans threaten a filibuster, but this time, with some much better message groundwork and public outreach by the automakers, it will pass.
6. From Germany to Indonesia, and everywhere else in between, President Obama’s overseas visits draw some of the largest crowds in history — even larger, in some cases, than crowds seen by their own nations’ leaders, which will make foreign rulers adopt the “change” message faster than you can say, “да мы можем” (that’s Russian for “Yes we can”).
5. Afghanistan, Russia, Pakistan, Iran and China dominate the new administration’s foreign policy agenda, with China becoming more assertive and Russia and Iran more bombastic. But it will be Iran’s unwillingness to give up its nuclear ambitions and Afghanistan’s growing instability that will pose the two biggest foreign policy challenges to the new Obama administration.
4. Called on by President Obama, President Clinton will serve as a special envoy and join with Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to help restart a major peace initiative in the Middle East.
3. The Republican Party will continue to languish in the doldrums as they lack not only new ideas or a winning message to appeal to the nation’s changing demographics, but — maybe more importantly — an effective national spokesman to compete with President Obama.
Seriously, think about it: In the 1990s, it was Newt Gingrich vs. Bill Clinton. Now the Republicans have Mitch McConnell or John Boehner vs. Barack Obama … I mean, let’s get serious. Look to Republican leaders and grassroots groups outside of Washington to seize the moment and fill the leadership and rhetorical void — but, alas, it won’t be Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (although, as a Democrat, I wish it were).
2. President Obama will not veto a single piece of legislation this year, but expect Republicans to threaten a filibuster more often than Britney Spears ends up in People.
1. From healthcare to the environment, President Obama’s administration accomplishes more in 12 months, legislatively, than any administration since FDR.
So, all in all, Obama’s first year will offer historic challenges, and there will be dramatic successes, but it will not be easy. But then again, change never is.