Beach time

The tides that swept in the Democrats in the last two
elections have started to ebb. That much is clear. They did their best to
extend their reach, but the undertow was just too strong to allow them to
fundamentally shift the sands of American history.

Coming back to Washington, the Democrats are facing daunting
headlines. In almost every publication, the story is the same. The ruling party
is in trouble. They face retirements, party switchers, high disapproval ratings
and an angry electorate.

The president, who spent some time in the Hawaiian surf over
the Christmas holiday, has a choice. He can ride the waves or get slammed by
them.

He seems to be of the mind to ride the waves back out. He
will propose spending cuts in his State of the Union. He will try to tack to
the center. He will try to sound tough against the terrorists.

But will such posturing help him? His political base will go
crazy. The erstwhile liberal E.J. Dionne made that very point in the Post this
morning. It does a politician little good to alienate his base in an off-year
election. And the Democratic base is already alienated, wondering who stole the
real Obama.

Mr. Obama makes a lousy centrist. He doesn’t have the
disposition to take on the hard left of his party, because he generally agrees
with them philosophically. So he will probably continue to allow Nancy Pelosi
to run the show, even though that is not what will be the best thing for the
future of Democratic control of the Congress.

The fact of the matter is that the single best thing that
could happen to President Obama’s long-term political aspirations is the
Republicans taking back the House, while leaving the Senate in Harry Reid’s
hands. That way, he can still get his judges through, while tacking against
Republican hardliners in time for the election of 2012.

High tide has come and gone for the liberal Democrats, and
the sands of time are running out for the Democratic majority in the House. There
is not much the president can or should do about that fact.

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