National Retail Federation predicts record 2024 holiday sales

Holiday sales are poised to set a new record in 2024 and could increase by as much as 3.5 percent from 2023, the National Retail Federation (NRF) announced Tuesday.

The NRF forecasts holiday retail sales will total approximately $980 billion and $990 billion between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, up from $955.6 billion during the same period in 2023.

The anticipated uptick in consumer spending follows a moderation in inflation that plagued the economy in the wake of the pandemic, and last month’s much-anticipated interest rate cuts that have helped ease borrowing costs on consumers.

The labor market has remained strong despite predictions of a recession — which never came to pass — amid the Federal Reserve’s years-long interest rate hike crusade. Wage growth has also outpaced inflation, giving consumers greater breathing room after high prices ate away their buying power for several years.

“Overall, the economy has been in a good place this year,” Matthew Shay, NRF’s president and CEO, told reporters. “We know going into the holiday season that consumers continue to show resilience, and they show strength in their spending.”

The ongoing online shopping boom is expected to drive overall retail sales growth, especially as retailers increasingly implement artificial intelligence (AI) tools.

Online and non-store sales could increase between 8 percent and 9 percent from last year to a total of $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. That’s up from $273.3 billion last year.

“Retailers, like other businesses, are going to find new ways to adapt and purpose AI to do everything to do with and for consumers more efficiently, more effectively, in a more successful way. And I think this holiday season will begin to see that, whether it’s with direct engagement, whether it’s on fulfillment, whether it’s enabling teams on the retailer side to operate more efficiently internally in terms of the tasks that they’re doing,” Shay said.