Poll: McSally has 7-point lead on Sinema in Arizona Senate race

GOP Rep. Martha McSally has a 7-point lead over Democratic Rep. Krysten Sinema in their battle for an Arizona Senate seat, according to a new poll released Thursday.

The ABC15 Arizona and OH Predictive Insights shows McSally with the support of 52 percent of likely voters, compared to Sinema’s 45 percent. Only 2 percent of voters remain undecided.

The ABC15 poll surveyed 600 likely voters between Oct. 22 and 23. The margin of error for the sample is 4 percentage points.

{mosads}The poll differs from several others that have been released in recent days that showed Sinema with an edge over McSally.

A CNN poll released Wednesday, which interviewed voters Oct. 24-29, gave Sinema a 4-point lead, right at the edge of the margin of error for the sample (4 percentage points).

A poll by NBC News/Marist conducted Oct. 23-27 showed Sinema with a 6-point lead, and a poll by CBS News/You Gov conducted Oct. 23-26 showed Sinema with a 3-point edge.

A New York Times poll earlier this month had McSally up by 2 points. 

OH’s chief pollster Mike Noble noted in his survey that independent support for McSally was key to her advantage.

“The game-changer comes from Independent voters, who have swung from Sinema to McSally since our last poll,” he said.

{mosads}Noble also told ABC 15 that the Supreme Court nomination process of Justice Brett Kavanaugh had pushed the race toward McSally.

“If Kavanaugh didn’t happen I think it’d be an extremely tight race,” he said.