Story at a glance
- A new study found the world’s coral reefs are in grave danger due to climate change.
- Researchers estimate that only 0.2 percent of coral reefs will be able to recover in between heat waves affecting the oceans.
- They recommended migrating coral to more sustainable environments, but many of the efforts may only be effective in the short term.
The world’s coral reefs are on track for catastrophic damage from climate change, despite global efforts and commitments to reduce activities that contribute to global warming.
New research led by the University of Leeds found that more than 90 percent of tropical coral reefs will suffer frequent heat stress — considered their No. 1 threat — even under the current Paris climate agreement warming limits.
In 2015, the Paris climate agreement was created to incentivize countries to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible so the planet could be a climate neutral world by mid-century. It was adopted by 196 countries and required plans for climate action from every participating nation. The treaty aimed to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius.
In the fall of 2021, world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland, for the United Nations COP26 climate change conference to renew and expand upon their commitments to the Paris climate agreement, working around a new goal of keeping the Earth’s temperature from rising beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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Those efforts may not be enough to save the world’s coral reefs as researchers from Leeds believe the future of coral under even 1.5 degrees Celsius of heating is worse than originally thought.
“Our finding reinforces the stark reality that there is no safe limit of global warming for coral reefs. Following COP26 in Glasgow in which some progress was made towards the 1.5°C target, our finding shows that 1.5°C is still a substantial amount of warming for the ecosystems on the frontline of climate change,” said Adele Dixon, lead author of the study and a researcher at the University of Leeds, in a statement.
Researchers found that over the past few decades, 84 percent of the world’s tropical coral reefs have had enough time to recover between heat waves, however even at 1.5 degrees Celsius they estimate only .2 percent of reefs will have gotten sufficient recovery time. About 90 percent of reefs will suffer “intolerable thermal stress.”
Thermal refugia are areas of coral reef that maintain suitable temperatures for coral survival, even when surrounding ocean temperatures rise. Researchers found that under global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, most refugia would be wiped out in every region of the world, except for small areas in Polynesia and the Coral Triangle. That’s because those areas have lower rates of warming and where colder, deeper water is brought to the surface, which helps reduce the frequency of severe heat stress events.
However, if the world exceeds a global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, researchers estimated no thermal refugia would exist.
There is still time to save the coral reefs, as researchers recommended implementing local actions that remove other stressors, like fishing, tourism and low water quality, to promote resistance and recovery of thermal refugia.
Researchers also recommended migrating coral to more sustainable environments, but many of the efforts may only be effective in the short term.
“Coral reefs are important for the marine creatures that live on them and for over half a billion people whose livelihoods and food security rely on coral reefs. We need to not only deliver on Paris goals – we need to exceed them, whilst also mitigating additional local stressors, if we want children born today to experience reef habitats,” said Maria Beger, research supervisor and an associate professor in conservation science at the University of Leeds.
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