Story at a glance
- A news analysis reveals that the U.S. is far from reaching its goal of vaccinating 20 million by the end of 2020.
- Problems including vaccine reticence and logistics can contribute to a delay in inoculations.
New calculations reveal that it may take much longer than the federal government planned to ensure the majority of the country receives a COVID-19 vaccine, according to a new CNBC analysis.
Extrapolating how many vaccinations would need to occur in order for 80 percent to be inoculated against COVID-19 using the current rate, researchers suggest that it will take nearly 10 years to get 80 percent of Americans vaccinated.
Current federal goals aim at vaccinating 80 percent of the U.S. by late June.
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To meet this goal, officials at Operation War Speed would need to spearhead the vaccinations of a little more than 3 million people per day.
Currently, roughly 2 million Americans have received vaccines. Most are in higher-risk groups, including health care and frontline workers, and long-term care residents.
“I don’t think we’re going to be able to distribute the 20 million doses that were promised” former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner Scott Gottlieb said Tuesday.
The vaccine distribution across the U.S. has slowly unfolded, but reports of lagging delegation and Pfizer vaccine doses sitting on ice awaiting distribution have brought criticism to President Trump’s rollout plan.
Part of the issue is that both Pfizer and Moderna’s approved vaccines require two doses to complete the vaccination, administered about three weeks apart. Gottlieb says that even with people awaiting their second vaccinations, the first doses may have a positive effect on public immunity.
“We don’t know exactly what the magnitude of that protection is and how long it lasts,” he said. “But there is evidence that there’s partial protection after the first dose.”
In a press release Tuesday, the White House confirmed that nearly 20 million first doses have been allocated across States “or immediate delivery and administration at their direction,” with “hundreds of millions of doses” to be delivered in the coming months.
Outside of logistic problems, vaccine hesitancy is also a threat to cultivating mass immunity.
Earlier in Stephen Hahn, the current FDA commissioner, called Americans’ reticence to get vaccinated against COVID-19 is a “significant problem.”
“We need to roll this out in a way that provides confidence to people. But we also need to be transparent. What do we know? What do we don’t know?” he added.
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