Luntz: Biden is weakest incumbent since Carter

Republican pollster Frank Luntz on Thursday called President Biden the “weakest incumbent” since former President Carter, who did not win his reelection campaign.

Luntz, known for his messaging skills, pointed to Biden’s polling numbers to back up his claim. He said in a head-to-head hypothetical match-up against former President Trump, Biden performs better, but when third-party candidates are added in, voters drop from Biden and Trump pulls ahead.

A Quinnipiac University poll on Wednesday illustrated the power potential third-party voters have in the upcoming presidential race.

According to the poll, Biden is up by 6 points in a head-to-head hypothetical match-up against Trump, 50 percent to 44 percent.

In a five-person contest that includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., however, the race is much closer between Trump and Biden — with Biden in the lead with 39 percent, followed by Trump at 37 percent and Kennedy at 14 percent. Independent candidate Cornel West got 3 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 2 percent.

Luntz pointed to voters’ propensity to opt for a third-party candidate as evidence of Biden’s weakness.

“Make no mistake, Joe Biden is the weakest incumbent in America since Jimmy Carter in 1980. And don’t forget, on the Thursday before the election, Carter was dead even with Ronald Reagan. After their one debate, Reagan beat Jimmy Carter by nine points. This is a look into the future,” Luntz said on CNBC.

Biden has seen some momentum in recent polls as economic sentiment improves following strong numbers to close out 2023.

In the Quinnipiac poll, Biden’s support ticked up 6 points from the previous poll, which was “too close to call” in a head-to-head match-up between Biden and Trump. A majority of independents, 52 percent, also supported Biden over Trump, who had 40 percent support.

The national polling average maintained by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ, however, shows Trump holding a narrow 1.6 percentage point lead over Biden in a hypothetical match-up as of Thursday, with Trump garnering 43.5 percent support compared to Biden’s 41.9 percent.