Opinion by: Krystal Ball
CNN recently ran an utterly embarrassing piece comparing Mayor Pete to an ascendant, young political rockstar Barack Obama.
Here was the evidence cited in the package: “Both men represent a fresh face and are calling for change.” Let me let you in on how these pieces are actually put together. Basically, the reporter and producer decide whatever angle they are looking for and then they find someone who is willing to parrot the angle they’ve devised back to them.
This isn’t “analysis,” it’s CNN acting as a Pete SuperPAC propping up a candidate with limited appeal. Obviously, they were relentlessly mocked for it and rightfully so.
Friend of the show Michael Brooks called it “so embarrassing,” and Ryan Kyote said, “hahahahahahahahaha.”
Now in fairness, the Pete is a real contender narrative looks plausible if you don’t look past the overwhelmingly white states of Iowa and New Hampshire where as we were informed also by CNN Pete sits in 4th but a strong 4th. But here’s the thing, the other states get to vote too. And not all of them are super white. You see there’s this tiny glaring problem with the Pete is Obama narrative, black people actually liked Obama.
The same cannot be said for poor Pete who is polling at 3% with both African Americans and Latinos in the latest YouGov Economist poll. And just so you know that I’m not cherry-picking, 3% is literally the strongest performance that I’ve seen Pete have with this group. By the way, it really bothers me how this gets casually chalked up to homophobia as if all black and brown people are monolithically anti-gay and everyone else is evolved and perfect. Please. There are many reasons to find Pete’s boring yet condescending technocratic approach uninspiring.
There’s also a lot not to like about his tenure as mayor of South Bend, just ask the black residents who didn’t vote for his reelect. Apparently though, Pete has fully bought the media and billionaire hype surrounding his campaign, not to mention the “whites only” view of the primary.
The media and the Buttigieg camp believe that because he’s a centrist and Biden’s a centrist, they appeal to the same group of voters. This though, is not how voters actually think about things at all. Biden’s strongest support is with older African Americans, a demographic group with which Pete is polling at literal 0%. You know who does have a coalition that looks a lot like Pete’s though, to the extent anyway that you can call Miracle Whip plus Mayo a coalition, Elizabeth Warren. Now I want to be fair to Warren. Black and brown voters do not seem to be allergic to her in the same way they are to Pete, but her strongest support is definitely from a similar affluent white people demographic. In fact, her rise in the polls has come from consolidating the support of the professional managerial class as Beto and then Kamala and Pete slipped.
This becomes quite clear if you look at 2nd choice numbers. In CNN’s New Hampshire poll, Warren voters 2nd choice is Bernie Sanders but next in line, right after him, is Pete Buttigieg. For Pete voters, their top 2nd choice pick is Warren. We can also take a look at what’s happened post-debate as Buttigieg has climbed up a few points both in Iowa and New Hampshire and with white people nationally. Warren’s momentum has slowed and as I reported last week, even seems to have reversed a bit. Nate Silver notes that post October 15, Biden has led 10 polls and Warren only 1. That’s a shift from the weeks leading up to the last debate when Pete began his mini surge.
So perhaps the race for affluent white people support has already come down to Pete versus Warren but you know, there are a lot of other people who vote in these primaries. The reality is, Pete’s rise, is likely to be Warren’s loss. They’re locked in a zero sum battle. So deepest condolences to the media who would love nothing more than to see everyone drop out except the two professional managerial class darlings but I’m sorry, you’re going to have to deal with those pesky working class voters and their preferences. Despite the best efforts of the media and the Clintons, they haven’t been wholly excised from the Democratic party.
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