Democratic pollster Carly Cooperman said on Monday that Democrats stand to benefit from the midterm map for the House.
Cooperman, a partner at Schoen consulting, said many swing House districts aren’t in the rural areas that are key to President Trump’s base.
{mosads}”As we turn to a lot of the House districts that are in swing districts, hotly contested races that we’re looking at, I think the geographic location of some of these districts are leaving the core areas of Trump support and they’re leaving the rural areas where his turnout is better,” Cooperman told Hill.TV’s Joe Concha on “What America’s Thinking.”
Cooperman referenced high Democratic turnout in suburban districts such as Ohio’s historically red 12th Congressional District. Republicans were left with only a thin lead in the district after a special election last week. It was a race the GOP had been expected to win easily before the high Democratic turnout.
“We’re seeing Democrats are turning out more, and so I think that actually bodes well for Democrats in the House races,” she said.
GOP pollster Chris Wilson agreed with Cooperman but said the makeup of the Senate map will likely be more favorable to Republicans.
“It’s kind of an inverse effect. The Senate map works out real well for Republicans, the House map, not so much,” Wilson, the CEO of WPA Intelligence, told Concha.
Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to win back the majority in the House in November.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has listed three Republican-held districts as likely being won by Democrats, while it has another seven leaning toward Democrats.
There is only one House seat currently held by a Democrat listed as leaning or likely Republican.
Cook also lists 35 GOP held seats as toss-ups, while only 3 Democratic seats are also listed as toss-ups.
The electoral map in the Senate is more favorable to Republicans because Democrats are defending more than twice as many seats as Republicans, in addition to 10 in states that Trump won in 2016.
— Julia Manchester
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