The Hill’s 12:30 Report — GOP’s midterm optimism grows

by Cate Martel - 10/19/22 12:30 PM ET

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–> A midday take on what’s happening in politics and how to have a sense of humor about it.*

*Ha. Haha. Hahah. Sniff. Haha. Sniff. Ha–breaks down crying hysterically.

TALK OF THE MORNING

Could you let me out of the car around the corner? Like a block away?:

“President Biden is once again being viewed as a serious drag on his party’s midterm prospects, after a late summer bump had some thinking he would be less of an anchor around Democratic lawmakers seeking reelection.”

Why: “And as inflation soars and fear of a recession continues to mount, Democrats say the president will end up being ‘the fall guy,’ as one source put it, even if some in the party don’t think the criticism is entirely fair.”

What this means for Democrats on the campaign trail — and for Biden’s 2024 hopes, via The Hill’s Amie Parnes

BTW — BIDEN’S APPROVAL RATING IS HOVERING AROUND 40 PERCENT:
President Biden’s approval rating remains at 40 percent, according to a new Reuters-Ipsos poll, unchanged from the previous week.

The full poll

‘A REPUBLICAN WAVE IN THE HOUSE IS STILL QUITE POSSIBLE’:
Analysis from CNN’s Harry Enten

‘BETTING MARKETS NOW SEE REPUBLICANS WINNING SENATE IN MIDTERM ELECTIONS’:
From Market Watch’s Katie Marriner and Victor Reklaitis

Happy Wednesday! I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here.

🗓 More from the campaign trail

There’s even more of a twinkle in Republicans’ eyes these days:

It’s looking more and more likely that the November midterms will go in Republicans’ favor.

Meaning: Democrats are already starting the blame game.

For example — former President Obama got involved: Obama warned Democrats to stop constantly scolding people for being politically incorrect, saying they may be a “buzzkill.”

And Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has his complaints: Sanders argues that Democrats are spending too much time talking about abortion rights and not enough time talking about economic inequality.

More on the blame game Dems are already playing, via The Hill’s Alexander Bolton

HEADLINES FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL:

‘Five takeaways from the fiery Demings-Rubio debate in Florida’: From The Hill’s Max Greenwood

‘Warnock’s gloves come off against Walker in Georgia’: Also from Greenwood

‘Ten races out of 12 are moving toward Republicans in the latest round of updates’: From Politico’s Steven Shepard

‘Pelosi says Democrats need better messaging on inflation’: From The Hill’s Mychael Schnell

THE LATEST MIDTERM POLLING AND FORECASTING:
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast

Latest polling from Real Clear Politics

Politico’s election forecast

💵 The economy

A little tweak here. Slight adjustment there.:

The Internal Revenue Service announced adjustments to tax brackets for the year 2023 to adjust for inflation.

What this means for 2023 taxes, which are generally filed in 2024: To avoid salary increases pushing people into higher tax brackets, “the standard deduction will increase by $1,800 for married couples filing jointly, by $1,400 for heads of households, and by $900 for single taxpayers and married taxpayers filing separately.”

For example: “A single taxpayer making $90,000 in the 2022 tax year would face a top tax rate of 32 percent, while the same income in the 2023 year will face a top rate of 24 percent.”

More on what this means for taxes

NEWS FROM THE U.K.:
“Consumer prices in Britain rose 10.1 percent in September from a year earlier, continuing their steep climb as the nation grapples with rapidly increasing food prices, high energy costs and political uncertainty.” More from The New York Times’s Eshe Nelson

‘HOW TO PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL RECESSION IN 2023’:

The Hill’s Tobias Burns explains.

THIS COULD BE AN EXPENSIVE WINTER FOR ENERGY PRICES:
Via The Hill’s Adam Barnes and Zack Budryk, “Here’s how much Americans should expect to pay for utilities this winter.”

In the White House

That’ll cost roughly *rattles off internal calculations* $3 billion?:

President Biden on Wednesday is expected to announce roughly $3 billion in investments to boost electric vehicle battery production.

How is Biden doing that?: Through grants in the bipartisan infrastructure law. “The funding will be spread across 20 different companies for projects in at least 12 states.”

The political goal: “The announcement will focus on two key efforts for Biden since taking office: Strengthening supply chains and promoting the transition to a more climate-friendly economy.”

What we know about the announcement

Watch the announcement: Biden and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm will make the announcement at 3 p.m. Livestream

Biden gave a boost to the bipartisan marijuana bill:

“President Biden’s move to reevaluate marijuana’s legal status and pardon federal weed convictions has reinvigorated momentum for congressional action to boost the ailing cannabis industry.” The Hill’s Karl Evers-Hillstrom and Aris Folley explain how.

Timing: “Lawmakers see the lame-duck session as their best chance yet to pass the SAFE Banking Act, a bipartisan measure that would enable cannabis businesses to more easily access banking services and loans.”

Keep in mind: Public pressure is building for Congress to reform marijuana laws.

Tidbit — Commander Biden’s Secret Service tryout:

The Associated Press’s Aamer Madhani tweeted, “Biden’s dog Commander spotted, barking at White House pool reporters returning to campus after [President Biden’s] abortion speech.” Photos

🦠 Latest with COVID

➤ THE COVID-19 NUMBERS

Cases to date: 96.8 million

Death toll: 1,060,041

Current hospitalizations: 18,410

Shots administered: 627 million

Fully vaccinated: 68.1 percent of Americans

CDC data here.

🐥Notable tweets

No, *you’re* an affable individual who has a wonderful smile!:

During a Minnesota gubernatorial debate, Republican Scott Jensen was asked to say one nice thing about his opponent, Gov. Tim Walz (D).

Jensen paused and then said: “I’ve thought about this question. I think Tim Walz is an affable individual who … has a wonderful smile.” His body language really stood out here. Watch

Social media lit up after this response.

What Walz said to compliment Jensen: “I think Scott has shown great affinity I see as he talks about his family … I think that’s always a pretty good indicator of where someone’s heart’s at. I, myself, always appreciate that when someone puts their family first.”

Watch the full back and forth from HuffPost — around the 3:12:38 mark

⏱On tap

The House and Senate are out. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, D.C.

10:45 a.m.: Biden received his daily briefing.
12:15 p.m.: Biden and Harris have lunch together.

All times Eastern.

📺What to watch

12:15 p.m.: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre holds a press briefing. Livestream
1 p.m.: The Hill is hosting a virtual event, “50+ Women Voters and the Midterms.” Details and livestream
1:15 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks on energy security and lowering costs. Livestream
3 p.m.: Biden delivers remarks on the bipartisan infrastructure law. Livestream
7 p.m.: Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks about the direction of the conservative movement at the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service. Livestream

🍭 In lighter news

Today is National Seafood Bisque Day.

We’re getting a ‘Hocus Pocus’ sequel AND a ‘Christmas Story’ sequel in one year?!:

“A Christmas Story Christmas,” a sequel to the popular 1983 film “A Christmas Story,” is premiering on HBO Max on Nov. 17 (!) Watch the new teaser

And to leave you with a smile, watch this dolphin imitate a girl’s cartwheels.