The Hill’s Morning Report — The countdown to 2024 starts now

by Alexis Simendinger and Kristina Karisch - 11/21/22 6:25 AM ET

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The vote tallies remain incomplete for the 2022 midterms, but party operatives on both sides of the aisle are already moving on — to the 2024 presidential election.

First to officially declare his candidacy was former President Trump, who last Tuesday announced his 2024 bid at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Fla. But the erstwhile head of the Republican Party has become a polarizing figure for GOP leaders after a disappointing midterm showing.

Only one Republican senator has announced publicly that he will support Trump’s 2024 reelection bid, a sign of the uphill battle Trump faces in his quest to win the Republican presidential nomination and a second term in the White House, writes The Hill’s Alexander Bolton. Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) told reporters last week that he will support Trump’s candidacy for president and praised his track record in the Oval Office.

The rest of the Senate GOP conference is holding back, skeptical he can win the 2024 presidential election or even beat rising star Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the primary. Most Republicans are staying neutral for the time being, waiting to see who else jumps into the primary — and whether Trump gets hit with a criminal indictment from the Justice Department after Friday’s appointment of a special counsel.

Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith, the head of the department’s criminal division, as the special counsel, who will oversee a pair of criminal investigations involving Trump (The New York Times).

Former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein on Sunday said the appointment of a special counsel indicates the department still believes it has a “viable potential case” against him. Rosenstein, who appointed Robert Mueller as special counsel to investigate Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation” that he can’t “second guess” the decision from the outside (The Hill).

“I think what it indicates is that, despite the fact that the department has been at this for some time, almost two years on the Jan. 6 investigation, close to a year on the Mar-a-Lago investigation, that they still believe that they have a viable potential case,” Rosenstein said. “It doesn’t mean they made a decision to go forward. But it certainly is an indication they believe it’s a possibility.”

And former Attorney General William Barr said Friday on PBS that the department probably has a “basis for legitimately indicting” Trump over the classified and sensitive documents law enforcement says were taken to Mar-a-Lago (The Hill).

Politico: New Trump special counsel launches investigation in Mueller’s shadow.

Two reports analyzing two different criminal investigations into Trump have reached a singular conclusion: there is enough evidence to bring charges against the former president, writes The Hill’s Rebecca Beitsch. Veteran prosecutors and top legal minds this week banded together to offer an assessment of two ongoing probes — one in Georgia examining Trump’s actions in the state leading up to Jan. 6, 2021, the other led by the Justice Department as it explores the mishandling of sensitive government documents at Mar-a-Lago. In each, the attorneys found robust cases and significant legal risk for Trump, who is facing mounting legal trouble as he launches his early bid in the 2024 presidential race.

▪ The Hill: Trump faces potential fundraising problem as megadonors jump ship.

▪ The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel: Former Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) calls himself a “never-again-Trumper” and says Republicans will lose in 2024 with Trump on the ticket.

▪ The Hill: Trump says he has no interest in returning to Twitter after reinstatement.

Trump’s candidacy could instantly jeopardize both the presidential race and control of Congress for Republicans, based on exit polls and midterm results. As Axios reports, if Trump is the nominee on a presidential ticket, he will turn out GOP supporters but also mobilize Democrats and turn off independent voters.

Former Vice President Mike Pence, meanwhile, is back in the spotlight promoting his new memoir. The Hill’s Brett Samuels has compiled five takeaways about his potential political future.

Business Insider: Pence says former Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows “did not serve the president well.”

Meanwhile, at this weekend’s Republican Jewish Coalition conference, a number of lawmakers hit all the notes that would set up future campaigns for the White House. While their tones and messages varied, they collectively made clear they are not going to back down to the former president after a third consecutive poor election with him at the helm (Politico).

DeSantis remains the de facto front-runner for the GOP, despite not having announced plans to run in 2024. The Hill’s Max Greenwood and Amie Parnes report the governor is thus far shrugging off any mentions of Trump — a longtime ally.

“In Florida, everyone kind of knows and has a sense of what Ron DeSantis has done,” one Florida Republican operative said. “The MAGA donors know what Ron DeSantis has done, the activists know what he’s done. But a lot of voters don’t. And Trump recognizes he has a chance to define DeSantis before DeSantis has a chance to get out and tell his story.”

▪ Bloomberg News: DeSantis pitches Republicans looking to move from Trump.

▪ The New York Times: A crowd of possible Trump rivals renews GOP fears of a divided field.

▪ The Washington Post: GOP 2024 hopefuls chart paths to run against or around Trump.

Across the aisle, President Biden, who on Sunday turned 80, has not publicly announced whether he’ll seek a 2024 bid and has said a decision can wait until early the new year. The question of the president’s age is increasingly relevant, critics say, as Biden considers reelection, though his supporters say the age-based attacks are markedly unfair (The Hill).

During a recent news conference, when he was asked about whether he had it in him to run for reelection, Biden replied, “watch me.”

The Wall Street Journal: Biden faces Democrats who see age as an issue for a potential 2024 bid. As the oldest president to assume office, Biden, if reelected, would be older than former President Reagan, who was 73 at his 1985 swearing-in for a second term.

Related Articles

▪ Alaska Beacon and KTOO: In the Alaska Senate race, where incumbent Lisa Murkowski (R) is projected to win, all absentee ballots will be counted by Wednesday and vote tallies from the additional rounds of ranked-choice voting will be published then.

▪ The New York Times: The Trump family’s newest partners: Middle Eastern governments. The former president last week signed a real estate deal backed by the government of Oman.

▪ The Hill: “When a population is not counted, it is erased”: Data gaps on transgender, nonbinary people prove costly.

▪ The Hill: Democrats look to make inroads with rural voters after glimmers of hope in 2022.

LEADING THE DAY

➤ CONGRESS

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who last week captured his GOP colleagues’ nomination to be Speaker next year, must clear a high bar to achieve that role on Jan. 3 when all members of the House cast their votes. Conservative detractors, including GOP Reps. Andy Biggs (Ariz.) and Matt Gaetz (Fla.), say they will vote against McCarthy, reports The Hill’s Emily Brooks. McCarthy’s first test involves math: How many GOP critics can he pull into his camp? What do they want in return? And is the aim to weaken McCarthy or to promote a viable alternative?

The Hill: McCarthy vows to remove three Democrats from committee posts.

Before a divided government gets underway in 2023, Republicans are stepping carefully around the administration’s $37 billion request for additional military and other assistance for Ukraine for its defenses against Russia. Some GOP lawmakers predict the debate will not be resolved during the lame duck period and will linger into the new year (The Hill).

“It’s a lot of money. I think we’ll have to have an open discussion on it,” Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), top Republican on the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security, said last week.

“There’s strong bipartisan support for supporting Ukraine, but I think there’s also an interest in accounting for the dollars that have already been spent,” said Sen. John Thune (S.D.), a member of the GOP leadership.

“I think we’re going to have to resolve that issue,” Thune added. “It’ll get worked out one way or the other. But a lot of this stuff, I think right now, it’s probably going to get punted to the next Congress would be my guess.”

The Wall Street Journal: The GOP House majority could shield industries from new taxes and regulations. “Gridlock in Washington is pretty good for American business,” says one strategist.

House Democrats are campaigning among their colleagues ahead of leadership elections later this month. Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (N.Y.), who is expected to lead the caucus in the next term, expressed optimism on Sunday that Democrats will maintain unity in the face of a GOP majority.

With Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) stepping away from leadership and ushering in a younger generation of progressives as she becomes a backbencher who represents San Francisco, Jeffries downplayed predictions of impending friction and disarray as Democrats regroup.

“The thing about us,” he told CNN during a Sunday interview, “is that while we can have some noisy conversations at times about how we can make progress for the American people, what we’ve seen is that under the leadership of Speaker Pelosi, [Majority Leader] Steny Hoyer, [Majority Whip] Jim Clyburn, we’ve constantly been able to come together.”

Maryland Democrat Hoyer also is stepping down from leadership, but South Carolina’s Clyburn, the most powerful Black House lawmaker and a close Biden ally, said Friday that he is running to stay in leadership in the No. 4 spot as “assistant minority leader” rather than bow out or accept an emeritus or other ceremonial role (NBC News).

The Hill: Slavery is still legal in most states. Congress is trying to change that.

IN FOCUS/SHARP TAKES

➤ INTERNATIONAL

More than a dozen powerful explosions have been recorded near a Russian-occupied nuclear power plant in south Ukraine since Saturday evening. Rafael Grossi, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog agency, made an urgent appeal for a stop to the fighting at the Zaporizhzhia plant — Europe’s largest (BBC).

“Whoever is behind this, it must stop immediately,” he said. “You’re playing with fire!”

Reuters: “Close call” in shelling near nuclear reactor on Ukraine’s frontline.

Meanwhile, snowfall across Ukraine means winter, setting up a dangerous chapter in the war with Russia, writes The Hill’s Laura Kelly. More than nine months since the initial invasion, Moscow has turned toward a strategy that targets Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and electricity supplies in an effort to destroy the country and break the will of the people.

“This is a deliberate tactic by [Russian President Vladimir Putin],” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said during a meeting of the Security Council last week. “He seems to have decided that if he can’t seize Ukraine by force, he will try to freeze the country into submission. It is hard to overstate how horrific these attacks are.”

Russia launched its largest barrage of missile attacks across Ukraine last week — deploying at least 96 missiles in one day — including explosive drones provided by Iran that targeted civilian infrastructure and temporarily disconnected 10 million people from power sources as temperatures began to drop.

▪ The New York Times: Ukraine will help Kherson residents depart as winter arrives.

▪ Politico: Give war a chance: Democracy conference pushes weapons, not talks, for Ukraine.

▪ The Guardian: In eastern Poland, Putin’s war has turned former enemies into friends.

The United Nations COP27 climate conference wrapped up over the weekend in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, after a tentative deal was reached for a “loss and damage” fund for nations on the front lines of climate change. Approved without opposition, the agreement would create a fund to help developing nations face climate change. It’s a precedent-setting deal that’s been three decades in the making.

Despite the historic draft agreement, negotiators at the conference failed to secure commitments for more ambitious cuts on greenhouse gas emissions (Bloomberg News and The Hill).

▪ CNN: COP27 summit agrees to help climate victims. But it does nothing to stop fossil fuels.

▪ The Economist: What happened at COP27?

▪ Reuters: Key takeaways from the COP27 climate summit.

⚽ One good read this morning if you’re watching the World Cup. How to pronounce “Qatar”? Read HERE by The New York Times.

OPINION

■ Trump may not make it to the primaries, by Keith Naughton, opinion contributor, The Hill. https://bit.ly/3TMwtJb

■ Democracy defenders have many reasons to be grateful this Thanksgiving, by Jennifer Rubin, columnist, The Washington Post. https://wapo.st/3EKzPrO

WHERE AND WHEN

👉 The Hill: Share a news query tied to an expert journalist’s insights: The Hill launched something new and (we hope) engaging via text with Editor-in-Chief Bob Cusack. Learn more and sign up HERE.

The House convenes for a pro forma session on Tuesday at 9:30 a.m.

The Senate will reconvene for a pro-forma session on Tuesday at 5:30 p.m.

The president will pardon the National Thanksgiving Turkey, which was raised near Monroe, N.C., during a South Lawn ceremony at 11:15 a.m. Biden and first lady Jill Biden will travel this afternoon to North Carolina’s Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point to participate in a 6 p.m. dinner with service members and military families as part of the White House’s Joining Forces Initiative. The Bidens will return to the White House tonight.

Vice President Harris today is in Manila, the Philippines, where she will meet with Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio at Aguada House at noon local time. Harris will meet at 1:10 p.m. local time with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at Malacañang Palace. The vice president will be part of a moderated conversation at Sofitel Manila hotel with a group of young women at 4:35 p.m. local time on the subject of empowering women and girls (Reuters).

Secretary Blinken is in Qatar where he will hold a sports diplomacy event with Mexican Foreign Secretary Marcelo Ebrard and Canadian Development Minister Harjit Sajjan in Doha at 4:30 p.m. local time. The secretary will attend the U.S. men’s national team’s opening FIFA World Cup soccer competition against Wales in Qatar at 10 p.m. local time.

🎄The first lady will receive the official 2022 White House Christmas tree at 3 p.m. at the White House. Volunteers will decorate during the Thanksgiving holiday in preparation for annual seasonal tours.

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff at 8 a.m. local time in the Philippines will join Department of Health Officer in Charge Maria Rosario Vergeire at Gregoria de Jesus Elementary School in Manila to discuss the safe reopening of schools and international COVID-19 vaccine efforts. Emhoff will speak in the morning at a Filipino and American Emerging Leaders reception. In the afternoon, he will visit the National Museum of Fine Arts in Manila.

ELSEWHERE

➤ TECH

Twitter continues to undergo hour-by-hour changes under Elon Musk, the tech billionaire who bought the social media platform late last month. After Musk reduced the company’s workforce to about 33 percent of its original staff levels and a large number of key executives quit, many wonder what the site’s future will look like — or if it even has one.

Musk told a Delaware court last Wednesday that his reorganization of Twitter is almost done, and he’ll spend less time on the company by the end of the week (Bloomberg News). But the many departures at the site have set off a wave of worry about whether the site can continue to operate well (The New York Times).

▪ The Hill: What Twitter knows about you — and what you can do about it.

▪ Fortune: Ex-Twitter employees are horrified by Musk reinstating Trump’s account: “Incredibly upsetting.”

▪ NPR: Sensing an imminent breakdown, communities mourn a bygone Twitter.

▪ The Washington Post: Disabled people fear Twitter changes under Musk will leave them behind.

➤ MASS SHOOTING

Colorado Springs, Colo., police arrested Anderson Lee Aldrich, 22, as the suspected gunman in a mass shooting Saturday at an LGBTQ nightclub at which five people were killed and 25 wounded (NewsNation). The shooter was subdued when a patron grabbed a handgun from the suspect, who was armed with a long gun and wore body armor, then hit him with the weapon before pinning the suspect to the ground, according to Mayor John Suthers (The New York Times). Here’s what’s known about Saturday’s attack (NPR).

“Club Q has been a safe haven for the LGBTQ community in an area where it hasn’t always been easy,” said Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D), who in 2018 became the first openly gay U.S. governor. “It’s a place where we can gather, dance and share the joy,” he commented during a Sunday church service.

➤ PANDEMIC & HEALTH

The combination of a swarm of respiratory illnesses (respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), COVID-19, flu), staffing shortages and nursing home closures has left hospitals across the United States overwhelmed — and experts believe the problem will deteriorate further in coming months. More than 500,000 people in the health care and social services sectors quit their positions in September — proof, in part, of burnout associated with the COVID-19 pandemic — and the American Medical Association says 1 in 5 doctors plan on leaving the field within two years (The Washington Post).

“This is not just an issue. This is a crisis,” Anne Klibanski, president and CEO of Mass General Brigham in Boston, told the Post. “We are caring for patients in the hallways of our emergency departments. There is a huge capacity crisis, and it’s becoming more and more impossible to take care of patients correctly and provide the best care that we all need to be providing.”

As winter approaches and people increasingly gather indoors without masks or social distancing, a number of new COVID-19 variants are seeding a rise in cases and hospitalizations across the country. The White House’s plan for preventing a national surge depends heavily on persuading Americans to get updated booster shots of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines — but The New York Times reports that some scientists are raising doubts about this one-pronged strategy.

Immunocompromised people, older adults and pregnant women should get the booster shots, because they offer extra protection against severe disease and death, John Moore, a virologist at Weill Cornell Medicine in New York, told the Times. But for healthy people who are middle-aged and younger, the picture is less clear. Moore said at this point most have built immunity through multiple vaccine doses, infections or both. The newer variants are spreading quickly and are excellent evaders of immunity.

“If you’re at medical risk, you should get boosted, or if you’re at psychological risk and worrying yourself to death, go and get boosted,” Moore said. “But don’t believe that will give you some kind of amazing protection against infection, and then go out and party like there’s no tomorrow.”

▪ The Washington Post: Holiday travelers face “tridemic” as RSV, flu spike in the DMV.

▪ ABC News: China announces first COVID-19 death in almost six months.

▪ The Los Angeles Times: Pfizer booster spurs immune response to new omicron subvariants.

Total U.S. coronavirus deaths reported as of this morning, according to Johns Hopkins University (trackers all vary slightly): 1,077,031. Current U.S. COVID-19 deaths are 2,222 for the week, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (The CDC shifted its tally of available data from daily to weekly, now reported on Fridays.)

THE CLOSER

And finally … 🐆 An ambitious conservation project in Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is pulling jaguars back from the brink, reports The New York Times.

The Mexican Alliance for Jaguar Conservation, based in Mexico City and founded in 2005, uses comprehensive studies of jaguar behavior in the wild, including tracking with cameras and GPS collars, to develop conservation strategies for a species that once ranged across the Americas and has a mythical importance in Mayan culture. Urban expansion, deforestation and hunting have greatly reduced jaguars’ range, but in Mexico, the number of animals has grown in recent years in response to conservation efforts (see detailed data, video and map HERE).

“The jaguar is an umbrella species, so by protecting the jaguar, you are protecting everything else,” said ecologist and conservationist Gerardo Ceballos, who founded the jaguar conservation alliance in Mexico.

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