Two years ago, no one thought Senate Democrats would hold our majority. We recruited great candidates, built strong campaigns, and implemented the right message and field strategy to actually pick up two seats. Democrats have inherited another difficult map this cycle, but with strong incumbents, more great recruits and plenty of Republican missteps, we’re confident we will win the majority again next year.
We’ve already had a lot of success over the past 10 months. We’ve won races in New Jersey and Massachusetts by double digits, hired strong campaign teams and have started to build the most ambitious and aggressive turnout operations we’ve ever seen in Senate races. We recruited great open seat candidates in Michigan, Iowa, Montana and West Virginia, and are now playing offense in Kentucky and Georgia. And we continue to expand our financial, technological and field advantages over our opponents.
{mosads}Republicans emerged from the government shutdown immeasurably damaged, especially among constituencies who have greater influence in midterm elections: women, seniors and independents. The GOP is mired in divisive primaries in almost every competitive race in the country — pitting Tea Party conservatives against Republican insiders favored by Washington. While Republicans are divided by primaries, Democrats are united, without a single primary in any competitive state.
Republicans have not put any blue or purple state into play, meaning control of the Senate will likely come down to North Carolina, Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Georgia, Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota. Republicans have to win eight of those nine races in order to win the majority.
In the last decade, only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection, and our incumbents are in extremely strong positions today. Mark Begich in Alaska, Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Kay Hagan in North Carolina are all leading their opponents in the polls and maintain enormous financial and organizational advantages over their likely opponents.
In each of these races, their opponents face unique challenges: messy primaries, dissatisfaction with the GOP shutdown and sluggish fundraising.
In Kentucky and Georgia, Alison Lundergan Grimes and Michelle Nunn have proven to be excellent candidates. They are out-raising their likely opponents and leading in the polls, while Republicans are preoccupied by divisive primaries in both races.
One of our top priorities over the next year will be to continue an unprecedented focus on boosting turnout. While Republicans are mired in primaries and battles with the Tea Party, Democrats are already building turnout organizations focused on the general election: hiring staff, collecting voter data, raising financial resources for early modeling, and targeted media buys, all while Republicans are focused on minding their right flank. Their candidates, their message and their ideology are being dictated by the far right, and not the general electorate.
We know the history of midterm elections and have seen what a tough map looks like. Just like in 2012, we aren’t taking anything for granted. It remains very early for both parties, but right now, the lay of the land favors Democrats keeping the majority in 2014.
Bennet is the junior senator from Colorado, serving since 2009.
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