Milton insured losses could total $100B, analysts say

Hurricane Milton’s impact is expected to cause up to $100 billion in damages according to a Wednesday analysis from MorningStar, putting insured losses on par with Hurricane Katrina. The storm is expected to hit the Tampa Bay area with Category 4 winds later Wednesday.

“The accumulation of insured losses during the 2024 hurricane season, which still has approximately two more months to go, will likely make a dent in insurers’ profitability, particularly to those with significant exposures to personal lines in Florida,” MorningStar wrote in a press release.  

The company added that cat bonds and other insured-linked securities could be subject to losses depending on Milton’s entry point, wind forces and eyewall size. However, they predicted global reinsurers would remain “unscathed” if Hurricane Milton fails to hit Tampa Bay directly.

MorningStar projected losses with an entry point south of Tampa Bay, but far from Fort Myers, to be in the $30 billion to $60 billion range. The organization calculated insured losses based on flooding, business closures, watercraft destruction and environmental hazards.

They noted that flooding and storm surge losses are typically excluded from most private insurance policies but can be covered under the government-backed National Flood Insurance Program, which has strict limits.  Milton’s impact could cause national insurance prices to skyrocket ahead of the 2025 Hurricane season.

The National Hurricane Center said Milton is “growing” as it moves closer to the West Coast of Florida. The agency has warned residents to prepare for a “life-threatening” storm surge.