Obama keeps eye on 2012

President Obama’s 2010 travel schedule suggests he’s looking beyond the midterms to his own reelection bid.

Obama has traveled frequently to Ohio and Florida, states where Democratic Senate candidates are trailing by double digits, but states strategists list as crucial in the 2012 presidential race.

{mosads}Democratic operatives note that because the presidential map is expected to trend back to the red-blue divide of past elections, the traditional battlegrounds of Ohio and Florida will reclaim their kingmaker status.

Since taking office, Obama has traveled nine times to Ohio and five times to Florida.

A White House spokesman declined to comment on whether Obama is looking ahead to his 2012 reelection.

Lynda Tran, a spokeswoman for Organizing for America, Obama’s 2008 campaign apparatus, said the president has also traveled to many states that are not considered presidential battlegrounds, such as Georgia, Texas, Maine and Maryland.

She noted the Democratic National Committee has invested in those states as part of its $50 million midterm election plan.

While the Senate races in Ohio and Florida are considered less competitive than those in other states, the gubernatorial races are closer.

Party strategists say controlling the governors’ mansions in both states could make or break Obama’s reelection bid.

“It’s going to be difficult for either party to win the presidential race without winning Florida or Ohio,” said Chris Lehane, a Democratic political consultant who worked on Al

Gore’s 2000 presidential campaign. “The epicenters will be back in the Sunshine State and Buckeye State.”

In Florida, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink was behind by 6 points in an October Quinnipiac poll while, in Ohio, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland was trailing by only 1 point in a September CBS/New York Times poll.

Party officials say a win by Strickland or Sink would give Obama an advantage in two years.

“When the president is onstage in the 2012 presidential campaign, when he looks over his shoulder, he would much rather see Strickland standing behind him,” said Chris Redfern, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party.

Redfern said Obama’s trips to Ohio will pay dividends in 2012.

“Every time he’s in Ohio, it benefits the governor and the party,” Redfern said. “When the president appears, whether speaking on healthcare or the stimulus or rallying the base, it helps the governor and party.

“As you build into the 2012 cycle, your resources are so important because the way Ohio goes, so does Wisconsin and Michigan,” Redfern added. “Ohio is the electoral gateway to the Midwest.”

Control of the governors’ mansions will also prove important when it comes time to redraw congressional districts. Ohio is expected to lose two House seats while Florida is likely to gain two, according to a September study from Election Data Services.

The president is scheduled to participate in a campaign event for Strickland and the Ohio Democratic Party on Oct. 17.

A Democratic aide said Obama would travel to a political event in Florida on Oct. 11.

Meanwhile, the Senate races in those states are not as competitive.

In Ohio, the CBS News/Times poll showed Republican candidate Rob Portman leading the Democrat, Lee Fisher, by 11 points.

In Florida, a CNN/Time magazine poll from late last month showed Republican Marco Rubio trouncing Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 19 points.

More telling, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has not spent any money on television ads in those states. It also hasn’t reserved any airtime, according to a GOP source who tracks media buys.

{mosads}And while there are four toss-up House races in Ohio and three in Florida, those are not much of a draw for Obama.

The president will attend a fundraiser for House candidates in Miami on Oct. 11, far from the toss-ups in the northern half of the state.

The president has campaigned relatively little for House Democratic candidates compared to Vice President Joe Biden.

Many of the most competitive House districts are in conservative areas of the country where Obama’s approval rating is low.

Tad Devine, a Democratic consultant who worked on Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) 2004 presidential campaign, said party leaders are keenly aware of the importance of Ohio and Florida in 2012.

“They’re not just interested in the Senate race in Florida, they’re interested in Florida,” said Devine.

Mobilizing African-American voters in large numbers will be a central part of Obama’s campaign strategy for winning Florida in 2012.

Recognizing their importance, party leaders have been careful not to abandon Meek, even though polls show he has almost no chance of catching up with Rubio.

Biden couldn’t have expressed his support for the Democratic candidate any more forcefully at a campaign event last month.

“Look, from the beginning through the middle to the end, the support of the president and me is foursquare, 100 percent, unadulterated for the next United States senator from Florida, Kendrick Meek,” Biden said.

Obama has traveled to other presidential swing states in recent days, including those that don’t have competitive Senate races.

A rally Obama attended last week at the University of Wisconsin at Madison drew more than 25,000 people. But it was not seen as an unmitigated boost for Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), who is behind in the polls in a tough reelection race.

It was rumored that Feingold would skip the event, although he ultimately decided to show up.

Obama also traveled to Iowa, New Mexico and Virginia last week — three presidential battlegrounds that do not have competitive Senate races.