Biden faces battle with Democratic base over Israel, Ukraine, border

President Biden is facing a fight with his base over an emergency foreign aid spending package that may reach the Senate floor this week.

The package, which would provide aid to Israel and Ukraine but include tough border security measures in order to win over Republicans, could add to his problems generating enthusiasm among Democratic voters.

Young Democrats in particular are increasingly disaffected with Biden’s handling of Israel’s war in Gaza, complicating his ability to connect with a key demographic that views the president’s age as a red flag.

Now Biden also faces blowback from Latino and progressive voters about the border security deal. It reportedly would give the president broader authority to expel migrants without asylum screenings or detain them at the border.

Biden’s readiness to embrace a deal appears to be part of a calculation that he needs to appeal more to moderate and independent voters to win reelection, given the persistent skepticism among many younger progressives about a second Biden term.   

It could also simply be the price for winning support for Ukraine, now that border measures have been tied to funding for Kiev.

Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist who has worked on several presidential and vice-presidential campaigns, warned that Biden can expect blowback from his base.  

“It will, in the short term, undoubtedly result in some people being very upset. That’s part of what these compromises are about,” he said.  

But he also cast it as something that could help Biden long-term.

“I do think that if somehow he and his team can pull off some kind of comprehensive deal which would provide funding for Ukraine and to an extent for Israel, as well as deal with what is perceived to be a very difficult situation at the border, I think it will be a big win for the president,” Devine said.

He also said the reality is that Biden has to deal with “a radicalized Republican Party” given the GOP’s control of the House.

“Yes, I think there will be blowback, but will that extend all the way until next November? I don’t think it will,” Devine said.

Biden is getting stronger pushback from Democrats in Congress as negotiators close in on a border security deal. 

“My message to [the president] is clear: We cannot cave to Republicans’ demands for ineffective and cruel Trump-era immigration policies as a ‘price to be paid’ for aid to our allies,” Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), who is emerging as a leading advocate for immigrants’ rights in Congress, warned Friday.

Ross K. Baker, a professor of political science at Rutgers University, said Biden appears to be making more of a play for centrist and swing voters to make up for his weak numbers with Democratic voters. 

“He feels that there aren’t enough voters among Latinos for an open border policy,” he said of the president.  

Biden may calculate that the prospect of Trump returning to the White House will establish a floor for his support among Democratic voters, Baker added.

“One of the basic assumptions is he can never alienate the left enough to cause them to desert him in the face of a challenge from Trump,” Baker said.

Many Democratic lawmakers and strategists think Democratic voters will rally around Biden if former President Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, as polls forecast.  

But the persistent lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters for a second Biden term — especially young voters — has become a top concern within the party.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released last month showed Biden virtually tied with Trump among voters younger than 30, with 30 percent supporting the president and 29 percent favoring Trump.

It’s a dramatic drop compared to the 2020 election, when Biden carried 60 percent of voters under 30.  

An NBC poll released last month found that 70 percent of voters aged 18-34 disapprove of Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza.  

And a Quinnipiac poll from last month showed 41 percent of Democratic voters said their sympathies lie with Palestinians, while 34 percent said they were more sympathetic toward Israelis.

Growing concerns among Democratic voters over the carnage in Gaza has bubbled up among Democrats in Congress. 

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called on Biden this past week to cut $10.1 million in military aid to Israel, arguing the destruction in Gaza has surpassed the U.S. firebombing of Dresden and Japanese cities in World War II.

Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) shared a New York Times op-ed on the social media platform X urging the United States to change course on Gaza.  

He urged his Senate colleagues to read it and “work to protect and prevent innocent lives from being lost.”

Biden’s poor ratings on the war come on top of concerns that younger Democratic voters have about his broader handling of the economy and his age.

A Wall Street Journal poll published last week revealed that less than a third of voters under the age of 35 think the economy is doing well. It also showed Biden underperforming with young voters and Black and Latino voters.

A CNN poll conducted in late August showed that two-thirds of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters wanted a nominee other than Biden. About half of the Democrats surveyed said Biden’s age was their biggest concern.

A senior Senate Republican aid speculated that Biden’s weak support from Democratic base voters was a major factor behind the president’s reluctance to engage with Republicans in serious negotiations over border security until last week.

GOP senators say Biden’s team came to the table so late that it will be impossible to get the emergency aid package passed through both the Senate and House until next year.   

The bright side for Biden is that signing a bill that provides billions in new military aid to Israel and cracks down on the flow of migrants across the U.S.-Mexico border could help vulnerable senators up for reelection in Montana, Ohio, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

Devine, the Democratic strategist, said a deal on Ukraine and Israel funding and border security reform will help Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and Bob Casey (D-Pa.).  

“It’s important in those states and races,” he said. “This is not going to be about winning in base Democratic states, it’s going to be about winning in swing states.”