In Colorado, brutal fights near an end

The Senate race in Colorado has come down to two scorched-earth primary
campaigns, with the White House trying to save a sitting Democratic
senator in one and Tea Party activists trying to continue their string
of upset victories in the other.

The onslaught of negative TV ads, get-out-the-vote robo-calls and fundraising appeals will come to a temporary halt Tuesday as both parties wait to learn who’ll be on the ballot in November.

On the Democratic side is Sen. Michael Bennet, who is trying to hold off former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, who sold his house to inject some last-minute cash into his campaign.

Polls show that Romanoff began to close the gap after releasing an ad at the end of July that accused Bennet of “looting” Regal Cinemas by helping secure a billion dollars in dividends for the company’s board members.

Bennet’s campaign pushed back hard against the ad, calling it an “outright lie” and detailing Bennet’s involvement with the company.

Over the weekend, the two campaigns battled again over a New York Times piece that suggested Bennet had exercised poor fiscal judgment over a loan when he was superintendent of Denver’s public schools.

Again, Romanoff’s campaign launched an ad painting the senator as a Wall Street pawn. And again Bennet’s camp fought back, questioning the timing and accuracy of the story.

Heightening the drama is Bennet’s backing from President Obama and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The last thing the White House wants is another sitting Democrat it’s backing to lose a primary.

Obama headlined a fundraiser for Bennet earlier in the cycle and made a virtual appearance at a tele-townhall Bennet was hosting last week.

But Romanoff has a powerful Democrat on his side — former President Clinton, who sent out a fundraising appeal for Romanoff back in June.

Clinton also recorded a last-minute robocall for Romanoff.

On the Republican side, it’s even uglier. Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton and prosecutor Ken Buck, a Tea Party favorite, have battled for the conservative high ground for months.

Norton, the pick of many in the national party and supported by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, went from front-runner to potential victim as Buck erased her early lead.

“The driving force on the Republican side has been dislike of Washington and the desire for something new,” said Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli. “But Norton’s closed that with some powerful negatives.”

If Norton is unable to get out from under the anti-establishment label her opponent has tagged her with, it certainly won’t be for lack of trying.

Buck’s surge came largely as a result of support from conservative activists in the state as the establishment charge caught on with Republican primary voters. But far from hiding behind her cash advantage and perceived insider edge, Norton went right after Buck’s strength.

After Buck was caught on tape calling those who questioned whether Obama was born in the U.S. “dumbasses,” Norton hit him for “insulting” members of the Tea Party.

And after Norton suggested Buck wasn’t “man enough” to run his own attack ads against her, instead standing behind third-party groups, Buck told supporters at a campaign event they should vote for him because he “doesn’t wear high heels.” That comment elicited another negative Norton spot.

 The irony Tuesday may be that even after millions of dollars in late negative ads, both races could have been decided a couple weeks ago thanks to the state’s new mail-in voting system.

While early voting is nothing new in Colorado, Tuesday marks the first statewide mail-in ballot election in Colorado history. All told, a full 85 percent of primary voters are expected to vote by mail, with 46 of the state’s 64 counties holding mail-in-only elections.

“It’s a major cultural change for voters, as well as a logistical one,” said Colorado-based Democratic strategist Michael Stratton, a Bennet supporter.

As of Friday, more than 275,000 Republicans had already cast votes, while more than 245,000 Democrats had.

On both the Democratic and Republican sides, the late attacks are missing well over half of the total primary electorate.

Take Romanoff’s first negative ad hitting Bennet on his connection to Regal. The campaign launched the ad at the end of July, more than a week after ballots were mailed to primary voters.

If historical patterns on the return of those ballots hold, somewhere between one-third and 40 percent of voters had already sent them back by the time Romanoff’s attack hit the airwaves.

Similarly, on the Republican side, when ballots went out July 19, Buck still had a solid lead in most polls. If the Republican banked enough votes during the initial mail-in voting window, Norton’s late surge could prove meaningless.

“It’s a very strange election for that reason,” said Ciruli. “The late ads are missing these voters, but if you think the election is within the margin of error, you really have no choice.”

— S.D.

Dem pollster Penn to host fundraiser for Crist

Democratic pollster Mark Penn is hosting a fundraiser this week for Charlie Crist, the Republican-turned-Independent governor running against Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek for one of Florida’s Senate seats.

Penn’s fundraiser is the latest piece of evidence that suggests Democrats are hedging their bets in the race.

Meek has led and trailed real estate mogul Jeff Greene (D) in recent Democratic primary polls and may not make it through the Aug. 24 vote. And if Meek does, he faces an uphill battle against Republican Marco Rubio and Crist.

The Democrats’ contingency plan seems to be to convince Crist to caucus with them if he wins the general. Crist has not said which party he’ll caucus with if he wins.

Crist supported President Obama’s stimulus plan, which led conservative Republicans to break with him in Florida. He decided to run as an Independent after it became clear he would not beat Rubio in the GOP primary.

According to an invitation to the fundraiser, Crist and his wife, Nancy Jacobson, will host the event at their Georgetown home on Wednesday. Penn was a top adviser for the presidential campaign of Hillary Rodham Clinton, whom Meek supported in 2008.

The invitation, obtained by the St. Petersburg Times, notes individuals may contribute $4,800. Valet parking is included.

Meek’s campaign was quick to point out that Penn’s event did not mean the party was backing away from the congressman. A spokesman noted that former President Clinton will be in Florida Aug. 16 for three events with Meek.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the Meek camp canceled a planned conference call with reporters so he could cast an early ballot.

After voting at his precinct in Miami-Dade County, Meek encouraged supporters to vote for “the only real Democrat” in the race.

Early voting runs through Aug. 21 in some counties, Aug. 22 in others. A spokeswoman for the Florida Department of State said it wouldn’t predict how many voters will cast ballots before the Aug. 24 primary election. Early voting was instituted in Florida in 2004.

—S.J.M.