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In historically GOP district, Hackett faces uphill fight against Rep. Carney

by Walter Alarkon - 04/23/08 6:44 PM ET

In past years, the winner of the Republican primary in Pennsylvania’s 10th congressional district was all but assured of victory in November. But for Chris Hackett, who won that primary on Tuesday, unseating freshman Rep. Chris Carney (D) will be no easy task.

Unlike the man he defeated, Carney hasn’t made any missteps, said Terry Madonna, a veteran Pennsylvania political observer. And, more importantly, Hackett is trying to beat Carney in a year Democrats feel good about their chances across the country.

“It could be almost as good this fall as it was in ’06” for Democrats, said Madonna, the director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll. Voters are dissatisfied with both the Iraq war and the economy, which has become the top issue, according to Madonna. Both are issues that Carney and Democrats are likely to use in the fall.

{mosads}“If you have to rate [Carney’s seat], it leans Democratic,” Madonna said.

Before Carney won the seat last election, Republicans held it for more than four decades. When President George W. Bush ran for reelection in 2004, he carried the district by 20 points. But in the last cycle, Carney benefited from the revelation that Rep. Don Sherwood (R) had an affair with a 29-year-old woman.

Now, with Sherwood off the ticket, the northeastern Pennsylvania district is again one that Republicans in Washington believe their party can win in November.

Ken Spain, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said that Carney’s support for a “tax hike” that was part of a $683 billion budget measure will come back to hurt him.

Carney “fears the unfriendly political climate in Northeastern Pennsylvania and doesn’t have the record to weather the oncoming storm,” Spain said.

Hackett, meanwhile, is looking to tap into voter dissatisfaction with the economy. He tells voters that he wants to lower government spending and make Bush’s tax cuts permanent. He points to his business experience and endorsement from the Club for Growth to show his commitment to fiscal conservatism, which was one of the central issues in his heated primary with fellow businessman Dan Meuser.

“We really need to rein in the wasteful spending in Washington,” said Hackett, owner of an insurance brokerage and staffing agency. “I believe that message resonates as well with Democrats as with Republicans.”

Hackett’s appeal to both parties may be necessary. Even if the voters tend to be conservative, they’re more practical than ideological, Madonna said.

“They’re not into the battle of Friedman versus Keynes,” he said, referring to Milton the supply-sider and John Maynard the interventionist.

And that could mean they’re open to voting for a Democrat. Carney’s 71,000 votes in Tuesday’s uncontested Democratic primary exceeded the total for Hackett and Meuser combined.

Carney, a former intelligence analyst and political science professor, touts his voting record on fiscal issues as something most voters will like. He notes that he backed a budget that didn’t raise taxes on the middle class and extended the child tax credit. He also points to his support for the economic stimulus, which will give taxpayers rebate checks this spring.

“To jump-start the economy, we need to focus on policies that benefit our middle-class families — beginning with permanent middle-class tax cuts and continuing with tax rebates, more educational opportunities, and a sensible energy policy,” he said in a statement.

His rhetoric echoes that of other Democrats.

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said that the Democrats’ slate in November will focus on ways to improve the economy and end the Iraq war. Van Hollen added that Republicans will try to turn to “Karl Rove tactics” that distract from those “real issues.”

“I believe that people are going to say that the Republicans are trying to use these kind of tactics as a diversion, to whitewash or hide the really fundamental differences on the economy and on Iraq,” he said in an interview with The Hill.

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But Hackett sees the economy as an issue that will help him. He talks about tax-cutting as something that Republicans do, not Democrats.

“I believe the Democrats have been overseeing the economy” for the past two years, he said. “The specter of increasing taxes is never good for economic activity.”