State by State

California

The Club for Growth has cut a television ad attacking another Republican candidate in a heated House primary.

The Club’s new ad criticizes former Rep. Doug Ose for his “liberal record” in Congress. Ose faces state Sen. Tom McClintock, whom Club Executive Director David Keating calls a “conservative stalwart,” in the June GOP primary in retiring Rep. John Doolittle’s (R) district. Whoever wins the Republican nomination will be the favorite to win the seat, since Republicans in the district vastly outnumber Democrats.

{mosads}The Club’s ad highlights support by Ose, a member of Congress from 1999 to 2005, for bills that included funding for the Cowgirl Hall of Fame and an indoor rainforest in Iowa.

Ose’s campaign responded to the spot by noting the losses by Club-backed candidates in special House elections in Louisiana over the weekend and in Ohio late last year.

“The Club For Growth’s track record closely mirrors Tom McClintock’s abysmal track record in running for public office,” said Doug Elmets, an Ose spokesman. “They are losers.”

McClintock has lost statewide races for governor, lieutenant governor and state controller.

Earlier this year, the Club ran ads criticizing Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-Md.) for his tax record in his GOP primary, which he lost to state Sen. Andy Harris.

— Walter Alarkon

Indiana

While newly minted Rep. Andre Carson (D) faces a four-person primary in the neighboring 7th district, 13-term Rep. Dan Burton (R) is also at risk in Tuesday’s primary.

Burton faces an uncertain fate against former Marion County Coroner John McGoff, a physician who has forced the incumbent to spend heavily on what could be his first difficult reelection bid ever.

Burton spent more than $1.2 million through April 16, while McGoff has raised about $390,000 in total.

An independent poll conducted for Howey Politics Indiana by Gauge Market Research in late April showed Burton leading 57-22.

— Aaron Blake

Louisiana

Two primary runoff losers from Saturday’s Louisiana 6th district special election are contemplating running again in the general election.

Businesswoman Laurinda Calongne, who lost in the GOP runoff, said through a spokeswoman that she is “very likely” to be a candidate this fall, while Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson is reportedly weighing a potentially game-changing independent candidacy.

Rep.-elect Don Cazayoux (D) was able to assemble enough of the black vote to pull off his win on Saturday, but Jackson previously dominated that important constituency in the runoff.

Cazayoux already figures to have a tough time holding on to a district that voted 59 percent for President Bush in 2004, and a splitting of the Democratic vote along racial lines would pose big problems.

Jackson is black, while Cazayoux is white and was the pick of national Democrats — a fact that reportedly annoyed Jackson.

Jackson’s state House office did not respond to a request for comment Monday.

Calongne spokeswoman Emily Tiller said: “Our country is facing serious economic challenges, and as a business owner, Laurinda believes she can be part of the solution. She is very likely to be a candidate in November because she thinks it is important that we choose the right candidate to beat Don Cazayoux.”

Cazayoux defeated former state Rep. Woody Jenkins (R) 49-46 for the Democrats’ second special election takeover of the cycle. They already took former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s (R) conservative Illinois district in March.

— A.B.

Nevada

Former gubernatorial candidate Dina Titus (D) officially joined the race for Rep. Jon Porter’s (R) seat on Thursday.

The state Senate minority leader, who lost 48-44 to former Rep. Jim Gibbons (R) in the governor’s race in 2006, replaces former Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas as the Democratic favorite.

Daskas dropped out of the race last week.

Titus had initially decided against the race, but she reconsidered after Daskas dropped out.

Democrats are quick to point out that Titus defeated Gibbons by 2 percent in the congressional district, while former Senate aide Tessa Hafen (D) fell to Porter by 2 percent. Porter is a top Democratic target.

— A.B.

Minnesota

A new SurveyUSA poll shows voters are turned off by Democratic Senate candidate Al Franken’s recent tax problems.

The 500-person survey showed 59 percent of people say Franken’s tax issues make them less likely to vote for him. Franken failed to pay for workers’ compensation insurance for his personal corporation and to pay income tax in 17 states since 2003.

Just 31 percent said the problems made no difference.

More than half, 51 percent, said Franken should withdraw from the race, while 38 percent said he should stay in.

Another SurveyUSA poll of 700 adults showed Sen. Norm Coleman (R) reopening his lead over Franken, 52-42. Franken had narrowed the gap in recent months to near-even.

Franken had the support of 67 percent of Democrats, while Coleman received 99 percent of Republicans. Franken maintained a sizable edge among independents, though, 57-33.

Franken campaign manager Andy Barr said the campaign would rather ask whether voters “would be more or less likely to vote for Norm Coleman if they knew that he’d spent six years selling them out to help his special interest donor friends. My guess: less. But we’ll find out.”

Attorney Mike Ciresi, who dropped out of the Democratic race earlier this year, is weighing whether to get back in now that Franken’s campaign has stumbled.

— A.B.
 

North Carolina
 
Rep. Walter Jones (R) will face a primary challenge Tuesday from Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin in a race that will highlight the Tar Heel State’s congressional primaries.

Other primaries of note include the GOP race to face freshman Rep. Heath Shuler (D) in a conservative district that could become a top target, and Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R) battle against a spirited challenger.

Jones, who has irritated some conservatives with recent votes, including his constant opposition to the Iraq war, looked to be in trouble when McLaughlin began his campaign. Since then, though, McLaughlin hasn’t raised much money and has been discounted by some observers.

A February poll conducted for McLaughlin’s campaign showed the race a statistical tie, but Jones’s campaign responded a month later with a survey that showed Jones up 54-16.

McHenry appears safe, according to a poll his campaign released last week showing him ahead of attorney Lance Sigmon 67-16. But Sigmon found a potent campaign issue when he ran a hard-hitting ad of McHenry referring to a contractor in the Green Zone as a “two-bit security guard” and posting a video to his congressional website detailing attacks on the Green Zone. The Pentagon asked him to take it down, and he did.

Sigmon, an Air Force veteran, was apparently endorsed in recent days by former Rep. Cass Ballenger (R) and is using a recording of Ballenger in a robo-call. Ballenger supported McHenry in 2004, when McHenry won the seat, and has now asked Sigmon not to use the recording, local reports say.

In Shuler’s district, former Henderson County GOP Chairman Spence Campbell, Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower and attorney John Armor will do battle. None has raised a large sum of money to face Shuler, and the district is largely seen as a hole in the GOP’s recruiting this cycle.

— A.B.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and state Sen. Kay Hagan (D) are expected to win easily in Tuesday’s primary, but they could be headed for a much closer general election, according to a new Research 2000 poll.

Dole led Hagan 48-41 in the poll, which was conducted for liberal blog Daily Kos and released Thursday.

Hagan has moved up in the polls thanks to increased advertising in advance of her primary against investment banker Jim Neal. She leads that match-up by more than 20 points in recent polls.

— A.B.

Texas

Sen. John Cornyn (R) is below 50 percent and holds only a narrow lead in a Rasmussen Reports poll released Monday.

The poll showed Cornyn leading state Rep. Rick Noriega (D) 47-43 and with a 50 percent favorable rating, compared to 37 percent unfavorable.

Noriega, who won his primary in March, had a favorability rating of 45-39.

Cornyn is generally considered a second-tier target for Democrats, who lost a wealthy self-funding candidate when attorney Mikal Watts dropped out last year. Noriega’s fundraising will prove key in such a big state and against an incumbent with a well-stocked campaign account.

As of March 31, Cornyn had $8.7 million to Noriega’s $330,000.

— A.B.