State by State

Kentucky

Former gubernatorial candidate Bruce Lunsford is favored to win Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary for the right to face Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) in the general election, as businessman Greg Fischer attempts to play spoiler.

Fischer has been running an outsider campaign against the establishment favorite and looked to be closing the gap early. But a SurveyUSA poll released Monday showed Lunsford ahead 47-26 and actually expanding on his lead from the previous week.

{mosads}Other primaries of note include the open 2nd district, where Rep. Ron Lewis (R) is retiring. David Boswell and Reid Haire will face off in the Democratic primary to face GOP state Sen. Brett Guthrie, who is unopposed.

In the 3rd district, former Rep. Anne Northup is expected to coast in her GOP primary, setting up a rematch with Rep. John Yarmuth (D), who unseated her in 2006.

Rep. Geoff Davis (R) will get something of a break from well-funded challengers this year. The perennial Democratic target is expected to face under-funded Democrat Michael Kelley in the general election.

Kelley had raised just $14,000 through April 30.

— Aaron Blake

Oregon

A contentious open-seat House primary to replace retiring Rep. Darlene Hooley (D) will mark Tuesday’s voting in addition to the state’s big presidential and Senate primaries.

On the Republican side, the last days of the House race were marked by former gubernatorial candidate Kevin Mannix’s assertion that businessman Mike Erickson used drugs and paid for a woman to abort Erickson’s baby in 2000. Erickson has denied this, but one or both of the candidates could be damaged for the general election.

State Sen. Kurt Schrader and former gubernatorial aide Steve Marks are running on the Democratic side.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KATU-TV in Portland and released Monday evening showed Mannix’s tactic paying off — after trailing Erickson on May 8, he led 46-42 in the new poll.

The poll also showed Schrader beating Marks 43-19.

— A.B.

Minnesota

This much appears certain: There will be a major third-party candidate in Minnesota’s Senate race this year. The question is whether it will be a former governor or a former — albeit for only two months — senator.

Former Gov. Jesse Ventura (I) said last week that he might run for Senate and will decide in July, when the state’s filing deadline comes.

If Ventura doesn’t run, former Sen. Dean Barkley (I), who was appointed to the Senate in 2002, says that he will run for his old seat.

Both Sen. Norm Coleman (R) and likely Democratic nominee Al Franken (D) have suggested Ventura is only making noise about the Senate race to promote his new book. Ventura also said recently that he would run for president if he knew he could get on the ballot.

Barkley has run for Senate before, taking 5 percent in 1994 and 7 percent in 1996.

Ventura defeated Coleman and a Democrat to win the state’s governorship in 1998.

Barkley made it clear Ventura has dibs on the seat. The two are close, as Barkley managed Ventura’s successful gubernatorial run and Ventura appointed Barkley to replace the late Sen. Paul Wellstone (D) following the senator’s tragic death in a plane crash.

A poll released Monday by the Minneapolis Star Tribune showed Coleman leading Franken by seven points, 51-44.

— A.B.