Sen. Obama’s coattails have both parties seeing victory

Democrats and Republicans both believe they can benefit from Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) being the Democratic presidential nominee this fall in races down the ticket.

As Obama starts to map out which battleground states to compete in this fall, Senate Democratic campaigns are weighing whether to campaign with Obama or lean on him mainly for fundraising.

{mosads}They’ll consider his poor showing with white, blue-collar workers, his association with the controversial Rev. Jeremiah Wright and a series of comments that have allowed Republicans to portray him as elitist and out of touch with ordinary voters.

But he has also put together a strong grassroots organization, attracted younger voters and African-Americans and generated a feel-good platform of “change” that could spill over into some close Senate races.

Democrats say that even if Obama struggles in some states, polls suggest voters want more Democrats in Congress. They expect the protracted Democratic nominating contest, which led to improved organization across the country and an influx of new voters, to help in the congressional contests. Plus, they point out, the Illinois Democrat has done well in most states where there is a close Senate race.

“The winds of change are blowing pretty hard in the country,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), deputy of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “And I think the winds are going to carry a lot more sails than people think.”

On the Republican side, strategies vary from state to state on whether to lump Obama with the Democratic candidate in attack ads, a GOP strategy that failed in recent House special elections. Some plan to pressure Obama to weigh in on controversies emerging from the Senate campaigns.

Obama defeated rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) in a number of states where Democrats have a chance of picking up Senate seats this fall, including Minnesota, Maine, Oregon, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Mississippi and Alaska. But he lost narrowly to Clinton in New Hampshire and New Mexico — both of which could be Democratic pickups in the Senate — and handily in Kentucky.

In the Bluegrass State, Republicans see a major advantage of having Obama on the ticket, saying it will aid Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) quest for a fifth term.

“I think it’s clear that he didn’t connect with Kentucky; he carried two out of 120 counties,” said McConnell, who added “it certainly doesn’t hurt” his campaign to have Obama on the ticket.

{mosimage}Sen. John Ensign (Nev.), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said there is “no question” Obama’s presence will help McConnell in his race against the Democratic candidate, businessman Bruce Lunsford.

In a statement, Lunsford said he will support the Democratic nominee, and said “we’re not going to run away from any presidential candidate, if they are right on the issue.”

Lunsford said that the nominee will have to make his or her own decisions on where to campaign, but would not say directly whether he would ask Obama to campaign. “If they are in Kentucky, we’ll be able to figure out based on our schedules if we can do joint events at that time,” he said.

Ticket splitting — where voters choose a presidential candidate from one party and elect a congressional candidate from the other — is also likely in some states.

That is possible in Minnesota, where some polls have shown Sen. Norm Coleman (R) leading comedian Al Franken (D) and Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the presumptive GOP nominee.

“I’m not running against Obama, I’m running against Al Franken,” Coleman said.

But Democrats see a major opportunity in Minnesota with Obama running nationally. The junior Democratic senator from the state, Amy Klobuchar, said the huge turnout of 206,000 people who participated in the Feb. 5 Democratic caucuses and Obama’s 35 percentage-point victory would aid all her party’s candidates on the ballot.

“Sen. Obama brings in a lot of young people and that’s where we can make [up] some ground in terms of adding even more people,” Klobuchar said. “And all of that will help the rest of the races on the ticket.”

Other states in which Obama won big include Maine and Oregon, each of which he won by about 18 percentage points. Republicans in those states don’t appear to be as eager to tie the Democratic Senate candidate with the party’s presidential nominee.

“A lot of supporters who are voting for me are voting for Sen. Obama,” said Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, who faces a tough battle in Oregon against Democrat Jeff Merkley.

Similarly, in Maine, Republican Sen. Susan Collins said that her state’s voters “tend to look at each race individually.”

Her Democratic opponent, Rep. Tom Allen, sees an advantage of having Obama on the ticket and has asked to campaign with him in the state.

Republicans think McCain will benefit Senate candidates in states with a large number of independents, like New Hampshire, Oregon and Minnesota, and that Obama will help the GOP in solid-red states like North Carolina, Kentucky and Mississippi.

But Linda Fowler, a government professor at Dartmouth College, said that Obama’s appeal to black voters could give GOP incumbents like Sens. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.) and Roger Wicker (Miss.) a tough time.

“I think there’ll be heavy turnout of both Democrats and Republicans because of the presence of Obama,” Wicker said. His state’s March 11 Democratic primary turned out more than 411,000, with Obama taking 62 percent of the vote.

Some analysts expect Democrats to have a tougher time in states with significant Hispanic populations, a constituency Obama has struggled with, though the senator won overwhelmingly in Colorado, where illegal immigration is a roiling issue.