Cornyn sticks to his message despite tough times for GOP

Sen. John Cornyn, once a heavy favorite for reelection, is showing signs of vulnerability that reflect broader troubles for Republicans this fall.

The Texas senator’s support has dipped below 50 percent in the most recent Rasmussen poll. Cornyn also lost an important ally last month when the Texas Medical Association rescinded its endorsement as punishment for his vote on Medicare legislation.

{mosads}To be sure, Cornyn is not expected to lose his seat to state Rep. Rick Noriega (D). He’s a Republican from a red state, with double-digit polling leads and a wide fundraising advantage.

Yet Cornyn acknowledges winning a second term won’t be easy.

“Is this a tougher year for Republicans? We do have some headwind, there’s no doubt about it,” said Cornyn, 56, who is also vice chairman of the Senate Republican Conference.

His recent troubles seem in line with a larger trend facing the GOP. National polls show growing disapproval with President Bush. Cornyn, who was Texas attorney general during Bush’s last years as governor, is particularly close with the president and rode his popularity in 2002 to Washington.

Since then, Cornyn has stayed loyal by sticking to staunchly conservative positions on the Iraq war, immigration, healthcare and judicial nominations.

At the same time, the Lone Star State may not be the GOP stronghold it was back when he was first elected.

A combination of redistricting, low turnout and a lack of emphasis on the state by national Democrats were the reasons Republicans dominated state offices, Texas A&M Professor Harvey Tucker said. Redistricting won’t affect a statewide race, and Noriega could coordinate his message and money needs with Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.

“Republicans have been winning largely by default because turnout has been low and Democrats haven’t been putting money into races here. So the answer is, anything can happen,” Tucker said.

For now, Cornyn seems to be in command. The Rasmussen polls that show Cornyn slipping also show he has never trailed Noriega. The most recent Federal Election Commission records show Cornyn has $8.7 million in the bank, compared to just $330,000 for Noriega.

The luxury of representing a conservative state also means Cornyn has little obligation to hew to the center like more politically vulnerable centrists in his party, such as Susan Collins of Maine or Gordon Smith of Oregon. As Cornyn himself notes, his votes opposing heavier taxes on oil companies and advocating more offshore drilling for oil aren’t necessarily a liability in a state so closely tied to the energy industry.

Yet Cornyn may have a more difficult time winning a national security debate against his opponent, a 50-year-old lieutenant colonel in the Texas Army National Guard and a veteran of the U.S. military’s mission in Afghanistan. Noriega, a state representative since 1998, has stuck to Cornyn’s votes against Democratic legislation on healthcare, veterans’ needs, educational priorities, energy and economic bills.

Most of all, he says Cornyn squandered a unique opportunity to help his state.

“Here you had a U.S. senator who went into office with a Republican Congress and a Republican president from Texas, and was unable to move this state in any quantifiable way,” Noriega said. “However you want to measure it, he was not able to make any interventions when all the cards were stacked in his favor. Why, then, when it’s still going to be a Democratic Congress and it’s 50-50 on the presidency, should we send someone up there to be a back-bencher and still unable to get things done?”

Cornyn blames Democrats in Washington for backing bills with the wrong approach, noting their restrictions on drilling for oil and push to increase taxes on oil companies.

“We’ve got a principled position, and one that is resonating with the public and we just need to keep after it,” he said. “As [gas] prices go higher, I think we’re going to find a tipping point, where people say, ‘Why can’t we explore and produce oil in the United States?’ ”

Among Cornyn’s most conservative votes was his opposition last year to Democratic attempts to broaden the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). Bush dug in against the legislation, and Democrats repeatedly fell short of having enough votes to override his veto.

Although dozens of GOP senators crossed the aisle to support the plan — including, at one point, fellow GOP Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison — Cornyn voted against it three times. He said the Democratic plan would have diverted funds to other states, and that he favored a bill instead that would have provided for 800,000 Texas children who are eligible but not enrolled.

Noriega notes that Texas has 1.4 million uninsured children — 21 percent more than any other U.S. state.

“They can paint it any way they want, but the point is that Sen. Cornyn had a chance to vote for Texas children and he did not, three times,” Noriega said.

Those charges are levied against a senator whose name is strong in Texas. Cornyn spent six years as a district judge in San Antonio, seven on the Texas Supreme Court and another three as the state’s attorney general.

And while Cornyn’s votes may not have delivered enough back home to satisfy his Democratic opponent, he has managed to break into the ranks of Senate GOP leadership  — a rare nod for a freshman senator.

Those who follow Texas politics closely suggest the race has yet to begin in earnest, as voters begin paying attention around mid-September. A lot can change in the time between.

“What’s key, as always, is message and money,” said Tucker, the Texas A&M political scientist. “These things can spin in unpredictable ways.”