Dems sit back as Republicans wage intense primary battle in Alabama

The Republican candidates vying to replace retiring Rep. Terry Everett (R-Ala.) face off Tuesday in a race between state Rep. Jay Love and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith that has narrowed considerably.

“I guess you could say I’m running like I was behind,” Smith joked in an interview. She finished second behind Love in a six-way primary on June 3. Love received 35.5 percent of the vote, and Smith received just less than 22 percent. A poll conducted shortly before primary showed Love with a 60-32 lead over Smith.

{mosads}“From all the indicators that you can get without polling, we’ve really had some good things happen,” said Smith campaign manager Scott Beason, who was brought into the campaign after the previous staff had been perceived as floundering. Love campaign manager Michael Lowry refused to answer questions about his campaign’s recent polling.

The fundraising gap between the two has narrowed, as well. According to Federal Election Commission filings, Smith raised $168,000 in individual contributions between May 15 and June 25 — $18,000 more than Love during the same period of time. She outspent him by more than $50,000, and still has substantially less campaign debt. Smith, however, trails Love in cash on hand.

With both sides admitting they expect low turnout — somewhere between 5 and 10 percent — the results are unpredictable, and hinge on the quality of get-out-the-vote efforts and district geography.

It is one of two GOP primary runoffs taking place Tuesday. In retiring Rep. Bud Cramer’s (D-Ala.) district, insurance executive Wayne Parker is the heavy favorite over attorney Cheryl Baswell Guthrie. The winner faces state Sen. Parker Griffith in a battleground race.

Adding to the Everett race’s drama are Republican leaders in the House who have organized fundraisers for Love, although the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), along with the retiring Everett, remain officially neutral in the race.

“Jay Love is an incredibly strong candidate with a record of cutting taxes and creating jobs who will provide a clear alternative in the general election to Bobby Bright and his record of tax increases and skyrocketing homicide rates during his tenure as mayor,” said NRCC spokesman Ken Spain.

Whoever wins Tuesday, though, faces a tough battle from Bright, the Montgomery mayor who is hoping his self-proclaimed conservatism and independent record will be an advantage in November.

Bright only recently joined the Democratic Party to run for Congress. He had previously been recruited by the NRCC, and, to drive the point home, Bright said in an interview he has not endorsed his party’s nominee, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).

“I really don’t know [who I’m voting for] until I walk in that booth,” Bright said.

If Bright has a chance in this Deep South district, it will be due in no small part to the nastiness in the Republican primary between Love and Smith.

The scale of the attacks in the race has intensified. Smith and Love have gone back and forth on accusing the other of raising taxes or being receptive to donations from oil companies. It has become so vitriolic that Everett and Republican Gov. Bob Riley called on both candidates last week to tone things down.

Of issue has been one of Smith’s commercials, which features a video clip of Riley that Love says was used without authorization.

“I view them as comparison ads, and never took anything personally by the Love campaign,” Smith said, adding that she laughs off the criticism of her commercials.

“As we’ve gotten closer to the runoff, she’s just gotten more desperate,” counters Lowry. “Her campaign ads just aren’t credible.” Love, through Lowry, declined to be interviewed for this article.

That’s not the only ad that has generated controversy. Country music star George Jones has cut an ad for Smith in which he says, “Jay Love is just a plain old liar.”

University of Alabama political scientist David Lanoue said the Tuesday race will be all about turnout.

The 2nd district is split between the city of Montgomery in the northwest and the more rural “Wiregrass” region in the southeast part of the state, bordering Georgia and Florida. Love represents Montgomery in the state House, and Smith represents a Wiregrass district in the state Senate. The two areas are roughly even in population, making strategy for both campaigns contingent on voter turnout.

Smith said that she has momentum going into the runoff in the Wiregrass region, and that higher turnout will benefit her campaign. Indeed, district geography has become part of her pitch to voters.

“I think I have the best shot of the two Republican nominees, because there’s been a tremendous growth in our support in the Wiregrass region,” she said. Despite being mayor of Montgomery, Bright was born and raised in the Wiregrass region, which he is counting on for support. Smith said that if Love is the nominee, he may lose that region’s vote to Bright.

“The perception is that Smith is running an uphill battle,” Lanoue said, though he noted Love likely will spend more on get-out-the-vote efforts.

Meanwhile, Bright has been able to stand back and let the Republicans bloody each other in the primary.

“It does not hurt my campaign at all,” Bright said in an interview, claiming that his campaign’s polling shows him ahead in the race, though he declined to release those figures. “I have not run a single commercial, and our polls are still indicating we’re very, very strong,” he said.

At the same time, Bright is trying to set expectations in the financial race, saying he “doesn’t enjoy” fundraising and that he cannot self-fund like his GOP opponents. Bright reported in May raising over $212,000 before the primary, and had over $150,000 in cash on hand, with virtually no debt.

While both the Love and Smith camps are focused on each other, they have kept one eye on Bright. Beason and Lowry both indicated that they would attempt to paint Bright as a liberal.

The 2nd district has been in Republican hands since 1964, during the Barry Goldwater campaign.

Everett has won the past two elections with at or near 70 percent of voters’ support. Sixty-seven percent of the district voted for President Bush in 2004.

“A well-run campaign will point out the fact that if he’s elected, he’ll support liberal leadership,” Lowry said.

“I don’t think I have to tie him to the Democrats,” Smith said, “He is a Democrat.”