Air War: MoveOn’s ‘Not Alex’ ad scores big with independents

MoveOn.org’s controversial “Not Alex” ad did not sit well with Republicans, but it scored well with Democrats and independents, according to a recent survey.

“Not Alex,” which debuted in June, features a young woman with a baby boy named Alex sitting on her lap. She says, “John McCain, when you say you would stay in Iraq for 100 years, were you counting on Alex? Because, if you were, you can’t have him.”

{mosads}A plurality of the poll’s respondents, 34 percent, rated the ad as the “most effective” out of a group of six campaign television commercials. Eight percent of Republicans said it was the “most effective” compared to 55 percent of Democrats and 44 percent of independents. The poll was conducted by Wilson Research Strategies and The Hill newspaper.

Other statistics illustrate deep differences between Republicans and Democrats. On a scale of 1 to 10, Democrats rated the ad’s credibility at 6.7. Republicans gave it a 1.9 credibility rating. But all three groups rated the ad as above average when asked if it was memorable. Independents rated the ad highly in all categories, which also included whether it bore a strong message, was appealing and could be considered “an ad I would talk about.”

Some political observers criticized the harsh tone of the ad, and others said it misinterpreted McCain’s now-famous “100 years” comment about the war in Iraq. Yet others praised it for its effectiveness and candor.

Wilson Research Strategies CEO Chris Wilson said, “While the ad received abysmally low rankings among Republicans, independents and especially Democrats were moved by its strong, memorable message. Another success for MoveOn in the air wars.”

Recent ads by the presidential campaigns received favorable ratings from surprising groups. John McCain’s “Love” ad, which contrasts the 1967 “Summer of Love” with his captivity in Vietnam, received above-average ratings across the board, including a 6.1 on “appealing.” But Democrats rated the ad higher than independents did on the whole; they said the ad was more effective by a margin of 1.3 points.

Wilson said, “McCain’s ‘Love’ ad … succeeds, by and large … Curiously, though, Democrats prefer it more than independents, the obvious target.”

Sen. Barack Obama’s (D-Ill.) “Country I Love” ad touts his patriotic credentials and received above-average marks in all categories, thought not as high as McCain’s. In another reversal, Republicans rated the ad highly in all categories, as did independents. Wilson called the ad a “spirited effort,” but noted that the ad was not one that people would talk about.

Other ads shared mixed success in the survey. Respondents rated the Republican National Committee’s “Balance” ad, which highlights McCain’s “balance plan” for energy and slams Obama’s “party-line” policies, below-average overall. Democrats and independents were nearly equal in their tepid response to the ad.

Harri Ann Smith (R), who recently lost to primary opponent Jay Love (R) for Alabama’s 2nd district House seat, tried to pin her opponent as a liberal in her “Runoff” ad. The ad did not appeal to the overall electorate and received a below-average ranking of 2.6 from independents.

Sen. Gordon Smith’s (R-Ore.) “Truth” ad highlighted his connection with Obama and received higher rankings from Democrats than Republicans, though Republicans gave it good reviews.

However, Wilson noted low credibility ratings from independents could hinder its success.

Working with The Hill for its Air War feature, Wilson Research Strategies e-mails campaign or issue ads to survey participants who view the ads and rate their effectiveness on several criteria.