Tennessee delegation faces tough primary challenges

A trio of Tennessee incumbents will try to avoid a shakeup in that state’s congressional representation Thursday, with each facing a substantial primary challenge.

Reps. Steve Cohen (D), David Davis (R) and Marsha Blackburn (R) are considered the favorites when voters head to the polls, but their challengers have all provided some indication that, under the right circumstances, an upset could be possible.

{mosads}The two freshmen — Cohen and Davis — are both facing candidates they topped in much more crowded fields in 2006, while the third-term Blackburn has seen a meagerly funded Republican run a pitched campaign that has caught her attention.

The main event Thursday looks to be Cohen’s defense of his status as the lone white member representing a majority-black district.

He has expressed the utmost confidence that he will win and released an April poll showing him up by more than 50 points, but the demographics of the district suggest his African-American challenger, attorney Nikki Tinker, at the very least has a shot.

Tinker’s campaign had been subtly pushing the race issue throughout the contest, but it went nuclear this past weekend, launching a controversial ad juxtaposing Cohen with a statue of Ku Klux Klan (KKK) founder Nathan Bedford Forrest and hitting him for voting against renaming a Memphis park that bears Forrest’s name.

Cohen said he cast the vote as a member of the Center City Commission to avoid creating a racially divisive situation. He called the ad “desperation” and said tying him, a Jewish man, to the KKK is beyond the pale.

“The Klan didn’t exactly have Yom Kippur and Rosh Hashana services and invite us over for them,” Cohen said.

In a statement, Tinker defended the ad as factual and said Cohen hasn’t adequately explained himself.

“When he had an opportunity to send a strong message to the Memphis City Council, he chose to defend the status quo,” Tinker said.

Cohen has worked hard to neutralize and thrive on the race issue, and he has said his voting record is more similar to the average black woman’s than to that of a Jewish man. Just last week, the House passed a Cohen-authored resolution apologizing for slavery.

The incumbent has also run ads instructing voters to select the Democratic ballot — a subtle suggestion that he’s seeking non-Democratic votes, many of which would likely come from white constituents.

Cohen won former Rep. Harold Ford Jr.’s (D) seat with just 31 percent of the vote in a vast primary field that included Ford’s cousin, Joseph Ford, and a dozen other candidates.

Tinker, who was second with 25 percent, is his main competition this time around, but state Rep. Joe Towns Jr. acould split up some of the black vote.

{mospagebreak}Matt Kuhn, the former Democratic Party chairman in Memphis-based Shelby County, said Towns could pull double digits if turnout is high enough, and that Tinker’s ad suggests she needs to make up ground.

The ad was lambasted by the Memphis Commercial Appeal in an editorial on Tuesday.

“Nikki’s people were seeing what everybody else was seeing — that Cohen was trending 55, 56 percent,” Kuhn said. “You’re not going to win unless you tear that down.”

{mosads}The other freshman fighting for a second term, Davis, took even less of the 2006 primary vote than Cohen, with 22 percent in a tightly packed field of 13 candidates.

Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe finished fourth, but he lost by just five points. He also outraised Davis through the first six and a half months of 2008.

Still, it’s not clear whether GOP voters have a good reason to kick Davis out of office.

Roe has focused on the money the incumbent has received from oil companies and political action committees, and his most recent ad features an elderly woman shaming Davis for calling Roe a liar.

Davis released a May poll showing him leading 61-20, and a spokesman said he remains confident.

Roe said he thinks the race is within the margin of error and that he’s banking on winning several counties.

“I would bet my next year’s paycheck on four of them that I know we’re going to win for sure; I’m that confident,” Roe said. “The others are probably too close to call.”

Blackburn’s challenger, Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood, made a splash by releasing a late-June poll that showed him trailing the incumbent by just 11 points, 48-37.

Leatherwood argues that three candidates from his county diluted the vote there in 2002 and allowed the outsider Blackburn to prevail with a plurality.

The county comprises about 40 percent of the primary electorate, and Blackburn has been unopposed in primaries since then.

Early voting returns showed low turnout in Shelby County, though, and Leatherwood has been outraised more than six-fold.

Blackburn spokesman Claude Chafin, on leave to work for the campaign, said the congresswoman has broad support in Shelby and all 14 other counties.

“We’re running a 15-county race,” Chafin said. “Leatherwood is running his register’s race again.”

Leatherwood acknowledged that turnout in Shelby appeared weak, but he attributed it to the Blackburn campaign’s tactics and superior bankroll.

“Of course I would prefer the turnout to be stronger with my base, but she’s run a very negative campaign,” Leatherwood said.

Both Davis and Blackburn have been confident enough to spend time in Washington in recent days, taking part in House Republicans’ protest of Democrats’ decision to adjourn without voting on GOP energy legislation.

Tennessee voters will also head to the polls to pick a Democratic nominee to face Sen. Lamar Alexander (R). The leading candidates in that race are former state Democratic Party Chairman Bob Tuke, former Knox County Clerk Mike Padgett and self-funding businessman Kenneth Eaton.

None of the state’s incumbents appear endangered in the general election.