Eyes of Texas on Senate seat

A coterie of Texas Republicans have quietly lined up to succeed Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R), who has said she will leave office when her term ends in 2012, if not earlier.

Hutchison told Texas Monthly last December that she is strongly considering a run for the governor’s mansion in 2010, and a number of Republicans have been considering a run to replace her.

{mosads}State Sen. Florence Shapiro has already announced her candidacy. Shapiro filed papers for an exploratory committee July 15 to prepare for a Hutchison departure.

“Texas is a big state, and the earlier you get out and start talking to people, the better prepared you’ll be,” said Shapiro spokesman Keets Norfleet. “Whether it’s 2012 or earlier, Sen. Shapiro expects to be prepared for an election for the U.S. Senate.”

Norfleet said the campaign hopes the early start will lay the groundwork for an easier path when the seat becomes available.

“She’s serious in the sense that she has an electoral base and the ability to raise a lot of money,” Texas A&M political scientist Harvey Tucker said of Shapiro. “But she doesn’t have strong name recognition.”

But while Shapiro is the only candidate to have announced — two years before the 2010 election — other high-profile Republicans have done nothing to dispel speculation that they are also preparing a run.

And there has been speculation around the state that Hutchison and Gov. Rick Perry (R) could simply switch jobs.

Perry does not face term limits, and told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram in April that he intends to run for reelection in 2010. Were Hutchison to run as well, it would mean a bout between two political heavyweights in the Republican primary.

At the same time, there is talk by Tucker and others that if Hutchison were to run for governor, Perry might run for her seat while she runs for his.

But there is no shortage of potential GOP candidates. Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Texas Victory 2008 Chairman Roger Williams, and Texas Railroad Commissioners Elizabeth Ames Jones and Michael Williams have been rumored to be considering a Senate run.

The possible candidates are walking a tightrope, trying to balance the careful task of deference to the state’s long-serving senator while exploring bids for the seat.

Hutchison’s Senate seat is an “option down the road,” said a spokesman for Dewhurst, though he noted Dewhurst’s focus is on the 2009 state legislative session.

“It’s an office that his family has encouraged him to look at,” said the spokesman.

“He is a very attractive candidate,” said Tucker. “He has a lot of money, which helps with the expenses of running a statewide campaign.”

“He would be a great senator for the state of Texas,” said a spokesman for Jones’s colleague at the Texas Railroad Commission, Michael Williams. “But we currently have a fabulous senator. So until there’s a vacancy, there’s nothing to talk about.”

“Once we get through November, if there’s an opportunity to serve, he’d have to take a look at it,” said Bech Bruun, a spokesman for the Texas Victory 2008 Chairman Roger Williams. “He’s made no secret of the fact that he loves to serve.”

A Dallas political blog recently listed Jones as a candidate, but her spokesman, Chris Hosek, denied the report. He said Jones is not officially running, and is focused on her current job.

“There’s no Senate race to run for,” Hosek said. “I think right now she’s working hard on her job as railroad commissioner.”

“People can rumor all they want,” said a spokesman for another rumored candidate, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, who did not answer any further questions.

Democrats will be well prepared for 2010 or 2012, said Texas Democratic Party spokesman Hector Nieto. He said 2010 will represent a culmination of a five-year plan to entirely reorganize the structure of the state party to focus on statewide elections. “If that would include a U.S. Senate race, that would be great for us, too,” he said.

But the race will be a tall task for Democrats. Hutchison was reelected in 2006, a year with Democratic headwinds, with 62 percent to Democratic candidate Barbara Ann Radnofsky’s 36 percent. No Democrats have formally emerged for the Hutchison seat this time, though early speculation has pointed to former lieutenant governor candidate John Sharp and 2002 Senate candidate and notable Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) supporter Ron Kirk.

Tucker called Sharp the de facto front-runner for the Democrats. “He has run some good statewide races,” he said. “He’s been out for a while, but for the time being, he’s the strongest Democrat in the sense that he can raise a lot of money and run a good campaign.”

Kirk’s and Sharp’s offices did not return requests for comments.

Tucker, though, said that a Democratic win is unlikely. “Texas is on its way to becoming a one-party state,” he said.

All the speculation about 2010 comes down to one person: Hutchison herself. Her spokesman, Matt Mackowiak, said Hutchison has made no decisions about when she will leave office.