Democrats try to avoid ’04 déjà vu

DENVER — Democrats are striving to ensure that their 2008 convention is starkly different than 2004, when Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) attracted one of the smallest post-convention bounces in history.

Many Democrats in Denver cringe when asked to reflect on the 2004 convention, especially at Kerry’s famous “reporting for duty” line.

{mosads}Accounts of Kerry’s post-convention bounce vary, ranging from his gaining four percentage points to losing one point.

Tony Podesta, head of the Podesta Group and a longtime Democratic donor, said Democrats did not run a good convention in 2004. He added, “With Kerry’s ‘reporting for duty,’ he went chin-straight into the Swift Boat incident,” Podesta said.

The Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign was launched by several veterans who served with Kerry in Vietnam and questioned his military record. Many believe the ad campaign, coupled with Kerry’s slow reaction to it, was a major factor in President Bush’s reelection.

“This year they have orchestrated a good convention,” said Podesta.

Yet some Democrats privately are nervous about how this convention has started, citing the lingering tension between the Obama campaign and the Clintons. They also say that the convention needs to hit Republicans harder.

Barack Obama’s post-convention bounce is not necessarily a given, unless his speech contains convincing arguments on why he should be elected, said freshman Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.).

“The country is looking to see if this guy is going to change the terrible path we are on,” Courtney told The Hill. “If he makes a convincing argument, the party is primed to respond.”

Obama should also avoid Kerry’s mistakes. “Kerry’s speech was not great,” said Courtney. “It was very defensive, responding to Republican attacks on the Democratic Party.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Saturday criticized how Democrats handled the 2004 Democratic convention, saying she would have focused on “the Iraq war and not the Vietnam war.”

Kerry press secretary Whitney Smith said, “Sen. Kerry is in Denver to support Barack Obama and Joe Biden as the next president and vice president of the United States, not rehash what might have been. He was honored to receive his party’s nomination in 2004, but he’s said time and again that he’s committed to a future of progressive legislation and leadership, not focused on the past. This convention highlights that the American people are looking towards the next great chapter in this country’s history, and I for one think it’s high time the pundits took the hint and did the same.”

This year, Democrats say they don’t have to worry about a lackluster speech because Obama’s oratory skills are extraordinary. Republicans, seizing on the high expectation of Obama’s speech, have said they anticipate a 15-point convention bounce for the Illinois senator.

His bounce will likely be determined by how much the party comes together after a bruising primary battle.

Republicans have gleefully recalled the 2004 Democratic convention, saying Kerry’s missteps were key to their victory.

In his book Winning Right, senior White House aide Ed Gillespie wrote, “The Kerry campaign’s beliefs that the country had already decided to fire [President] Bush was wrong, and it led to one of the most significant mistakes of the 2004 election cycle. They used their national convention in Boston to position John Kerry as an acceptable alternative to Bush without providing a substantive policy for the American people to factor into their vote determination.”

Democratic strategists James Carville and Paul Begala also believe the 2004 convention was a wasted opportunity.

“The lack of a focused convention — and the lack of a clear reason to fire the president — denied Kerry the customary convention bounce,” Carville and Begala wrote in their 2006 book, Take It Back.

Democrats note that the 2004 convention was not a total loss, saying that its most memorable event was Obama’s keynote speech.