Relationship with Saudi Arabia poses a host of challenges for next president

Saudi Arabia is watching the American presidential election carefully, because its relationship with the new president will be crucial to secure America’s standing in the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia does not publicly favor one presidential candidate, but experts on the kingdom say it is afraid of the unknown, particularly after a mostly favorable relationship with President Bush and his father.

{mosads}After Sept. 11, 2001, the American relationship with the kingdom became much more politically challenging because 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi.

Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) have been harsh critics of human rights violations in Saudi Arabia. McCain earlier this year went as far as accusing the kingdom of sponsoring terrorist attacks in Iraq.

While courting the women’s vote, McCain and Obama have Saudi Arabia in their crosshairs when it comes to gender discrimination. Women in Saudi Arabia are not allowed to vote, drive or participate in the Olympics.

In the August issue of Marie Claire, Obama vowed to be a strong advocate of women’s rights around the world.

“When it comes to countries like Saudi Arabia or Pakistan or others in the Middle East where women are still in second-class positions, it is important for us to recognize that the culture is not going to transform overnight,” he said. “But we won’t be bashful about speaking out on these issues and affirming a core belief in the equality of women.”

In 2002, McCain said on the John Williams radio show: “I’m just saying we insist that you allow people some fundamental rights. Let’s start out in Saudi Arabia by allowing women to ride in the front seat of a car? How about that, just for starters?”

But some say that campaign rhetoric will remain just that, claiming Saudi Arabia officials are confident the criticism will ease significantly when the presidential race is over.

“The Saudis are resigned to a certain amount of Saudi-bashing during American presidential elections. They don’t like it, but they take it without whining,” said Wyche Fowler Jr., the U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 1996 to 2001.

Another Middle East expert, Hady Amr, said that the new president would have a “more pragmatic” approach.

At the heart of future U.S.-Saudi relations is how a new White House will assuage regional concerns about Iran’s growing power and Iraq’s instability, analysts say.

The Saudi elites are nervous both about Obama’s Iraq withdrawal policy and about McCain’s “neoconservatism,” pro-Israel stance and “bellicose” statements towards Iran, said F. Gregory Gause III, an expert on Saudi Arabia at the University of Vermont.

Saudi Arabia finds itself in a delicate position. King Abdullah has called America’s invasion of Iraq an “illegal occupation,” but now Riyadh fears that a quick withdrawal of U.S. troops would bolster Iran’s regional influence.

Saudi Arabia has made diplomatic overtures to Iran, whose nuclear program causes concern throughout the region. But the Saudis also fear Tehran’s influence on: Saudi Arabia’s substantial and restive Shiite population; the mostly Shiite government in Iraq; and Hezbollah and Hamas in Lebanon and Palestinian territory.

As is tradition in the Arabian Gulf countries, Bush has held hands with King Abdullah. That visual has often publicly translated in American public opinion as a sign of how close the two heads of state are, though experts note that all has not been rosy between Bush and the kingdom.

“There is a long tradition of physical embrace by a U.S. president to Saudi leaders,” going back to President Roosevelt and including President Reagan and President Clinton. At the very least, Saudi customs call for kisses on the cheeks, Amr said.

McCain has pointed out he has good relationships with Saudi leaders, in particular Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a former ambassador to Washington. One of McCain’s former senior advisers, Tom Loeffler, lobbied for Saudi Arabia. Throughout his campaign, McCain has said his approach toward the kingdom would be pragmatic, solving conflicts quietly.

The Saudis are reassured by McCain’s commitment to keep the military in Iraq longer than Obama is planning to.

Obama, however, is winning in the Saudi court of public opinion.

“There is an enormous fascination with Obama, with his background, with the fact that he is a black candidate, the fact the he is young and the fact that he knows the Muslim world,” said Gause.

Amr, a Saban Center fellow and director of the Brookings Institution’s Doha Center, said, “I am overwhelmingly convinced that the Saudi people would support Obama, [but] if you were to go to the top 100 most powerful people they would want McCain to win.

“There is enthusiasm for an Obama candidacy,” said Amr, adding that only 20 percent of the Arab world views America favorably. “Imagine a world where we would get back to 50 percent.”
Wendy Morigi, national security spokeswoman for Obama’s campaign, said that Obama intends to work closely with Gulf partners like Saudi Arabia on lowering energy prices and preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But he will also demand increased cooperation from them in confronting extremists at home and across the region; in stabilizing Iraq; and in proactively supporting Israel and the Palestinians in their peace efforts.

McCain’s campaign did not comment for this article.

In an editorial earlier this year, the Saudi paper Al-Watan wrote that Obama is more capable than anyone else of changing American policy, particularly toward the Middle East.

Sabria Jawhar, an opinion columnist in the Saudi Gazette, stated that most Arabs believe Obama is the best candidate to lift the U.S. “out of the muddy hole it dug for itself in Iraq.”

But the columnist criticized Obama for not visiting any of the Gulf countries in his recent visit to Europe, Iraq, Afghanistan and Israel.

“What Obama is not doing is visiting an Arab country that would demonstrate that Muslim opinion matters to him,” she wrote.

Despite the public display of warmth, the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. chilled after the invasion of Iraq. Those who have lived in Saudi Arabia also say that the Saudi rulers who have been strong admirers of Bush’s father have been disappointed in Bush.

The relationship with Saudi Arabia improved a couple years after the invasion of Iraq, but has soured somewhat since. After being receptive to Bush’s request for more oil production in 2004, the kingdom rejected Bush’s similar pleas this year.

The decades-old bilateral relationship is strained, but Saudi Arabia is America’s second largest provider of oil and buys more armaments from the U.S. than from any other supplier.

“The Saudis will make it their business to deal effectively with whoever is president,” said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The kingdom actively worked to rebuild their relationship with our current president, whom many Saudis cannot stand.”

Alterman added, “We have fundamental differences [with Saudi Arabia] and those are likely to stay no matter who wins. We have a relationship not because we are similar societies, but because there are a lot of interests that we share in common.”