Obama’s struggles mirror Nelson’s

The storyline of President Obama’s reelection is developing in a parallel story in the Sunshine State, with Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) as leading man.

Both Nelson and Obama are Democrats with sagging job-approval numbers and high rates of voters who say they disapprove. Both have Democrats worried about their chances for reelection. Both have nonetheless raised eye-popping amounts of money and are on track to outraise their opponents. 

{mosads}And both are watching their reelection prospects get propped up by a fractured field of opponents that has failed to excite many Republicans, and left them looking for someone more enthralling to take on the Democrat.

“Bill Nelson is smiling once again, because he’s the luckiest guy in American politics, at least in the Senate,” said Chris Ingram, a GOP strategist in Florida. “We’re going to be calling Bill Nelson senator for six more years when one of these guys gets the nomination.”

Nelson announced Tuesday that he had raised slightly less than $2 million between July and September, and now has $7.5 million in the bank — a successful pull considering that only 40 percent of Florida voters approve of Nelson, according to a poll released Oct. 4 by Public Policy Polling (PPP).

Nelson’s opponents have not released their numbers ahead of the Oct. 15 filing deadline — a possible sign that their third-quarter results fell short of their expectations. None of the GOP candidates has been able to separate himself from the pack, and polls show about two-thirds of voters haven’t made up their minds about the Republicans.

“All of them are kind of uninspiring,” Ingram said. “There doesn’t seem to be anything really working to separate one from the others, no wedge issue that one has been able to grab on to.”

Retired Army Col. Mike McCalister has more support than the other Republican candidates, but Nelson still beats all of them in a general-election match-up, the PPP poll showed.

The lack of a clear front-runner in the Senate race, as in the presidential race, has led some Republicans to publicly clamor for a new, late entrant to save the field. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) fills the role played in the presidential race by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

The competitive breakdown of Republicans and Democrats in this key bellwether state also make it clear why it’s a toss-up whether either Obama or Nelson will be successful in Florida in 2012. 

And like the presidential race, in which GOP candidates debated economic policy Tuesday night, Republicans in the Senate race have made job creation the topic du jour.

Former Sen. George LeMieux (R-Fla.) announced an 18-page “Four Freedoms” economic plan Wednesday that hit all the same major points that the GOP presidential candidates have made the underpinnings of their proposals. 

LeMieux called for repealing the healthcare plan and banking regulations that Democrats in Congress put in place, abolishing mortgage backers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, lifting bans on domestic energy exploration and reducing corporate tax rates to 25 percent. 

“The Four Freedoms Plan is my solution to get our country back on track, get our citizens working again and secure our future as the best nation in the world,” LeMieux said in announcing his plan.

While McCalister has topped both of them in the polls, LeMieux and former state House Majority Leader Adam Hasner (R) have kept their sights focused on each other throughout the race, launching attack after attack on mostly personal issues while often ignoring McCalister completely.

“George LeMieux isn’t saying anything new or interesting; in fact, a lot of these policies seemed borrowed from the 10 principles Adam announced on the first day of his campaign,” Hasner spokesman Doug Mayer said. “But this race is about who voters trust.”

Mayer said Florida voters won’t trust a candidate who was supportive of some of Obama’s policies, working to tie LeMieux to Charlie Crist, the former Florida governor who attained Brutus-like status within the state GOP after he ditched the party for a failed run as an independent Senate candidate in 2010.

Nelson’s best chance and basic strategy appears to be steering clear of engaging while the Republicans knock one another down, and, like Obama, to hope that a lackluster candidate emerges, incapable of exciting enough base support to get Republicans to the polls in 2012.