Analysis: McCain’s best likely not good enough

GOP presidential candidate John McCain handed in his best debate performance Wednesday night, but it was likely not enough to swing the momentum of the race his way with less than three weeks to go. 

Sen. McCain (Ariz.), his back up against the wall as Democratic rival Barack Obama has started to pull away in the polls, demonstrated a new fire at the duo’s last debate. But the Arizona senator’s flurry of attacks and the Democrat’s calm, measured responses will likely do little to change the campaign trajectory.

{mosads}McCain’s performance, while uneven at times, was clearly intended to put some issues — like Obama’s past association with William Ayers — into the race. However, Obama was steady and on-message throughout, repeatedly returning to the issue that has carried him to what at this point in the race appears to be a commanding lead — the ongoing financial crisis.

Obama, in fact, almost seemed to invite a question about his relationship with Ayers, calmly explaining how limited in scope it was to a, likely enormous, television audience.

McCain's punches, while direct, never seemed to land, and it seems unlikely at this juncture that he said or introduced anything into the race that would shake up the poll numbers or give voters reason to change their minds about Obama.

While the Republican was more aggressive than in debates past, his wide array of attacks might have been counter-productive. A single coherent line of criticism might have served the Arizona senator better than the flurry he delivered.

For the third time in a row, Obama seemed unflappable, avoiding McCain's attacks except when he felt an explanation was warranted or beneficial, and transitioning to policy and proposals at other times. Given the current state of the economy, Obama’s focus on domestic issues instead of engaging in a back-and-forth with McCain over who is slinging the most mud could be just what the doctor ordered.

What is surprising about McCain’s performance is that polls have repeatedly shown in recent days that his campaign’s strategy of focusing on issues like Ayers and accusing Obama of wanting to raise taxes has not been effective. While the decision to be more aggressive was likely welcomed by Republicans, McCain’s inability to provide a new, more effective argument against Obama or for himself means the state of the race on Thursday will probably look a lot like it did on Wednesday before the two men sat down at Hofstra University.

The possible exception to that was McCain's wise invocation of "Joe the Plumber," a talking point that is media and voter-friendly and provides a human, anecdotal face to McCain's criticisms of Obama's economic proposals and ideology.

At this stage of the game though, Joe the Plumber might not be enough to do for McCain what "Joe Six-Pack" couldn't — raise enough doubts about Obama to put McCain in the White House.

To be sure, there is still plenty of time left in the campaign for events to change the campaign. But, as the Obama campaign has correctly argued, Wednesday night's debate was the Republican’s “last, best chance” to change the state of the race.

Although McCain certainly seemed to agree with that assessment, based on the aggressiveness he showed, he likely came up short in redefining the themes of the race.
Obama, on the other hand, accomplished all he needed to in this and in the previous debates. Conservative commentators on Fox News Channel agreed that Obama performed strongly in all three debates and did not crown McCain the winner. In a race that the McCain campaign tried to make a referendum on the freshman senator, Obama was able to use the three debates to qualify himself as presidential and get over the bar as to whether he was too “risky” a choice for the highest office in the land.
McCain needed a decisive win. Instead, he might have just cemented the status quo, leaving Obama with little more to do than run out the clock and turn out his voters.