Demographics, economy pose challenge for Florida brothers

Changing demographics and the turbulent economy have created the first challenging races for a pair of Republican Cuban-American incumbents in South Florida.

For Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), the issue is demographics. His district has grown more Democratic and less Cuban over the years, and now includes more Hispanic voters of Colombian, Nicaraguan and other Latin American descent.

{mosads}For his older brother, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.), in the neighboring district, the bigger problem is Democratic candidate Raul Martinez. Martinez is the former mayor of Hialeah, the largest city in the district, and has been winning votes from the reliably Republican Cuban-American community for decades.

“The one, it’s the opponent,” said Susan McManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida. “In the other, it’s the demographics.”

The focus on the economy is only making the environment more challenging for the two Diaz-Balart brothers.

“It’s hurting Republicans because, rightly or wrongly, [voters] associate the downturn with President Bush,” said pollster Dario Moreno, a professor at Florida International University and director of the Metropolitan Center. His polling shows 47 percent of Floridians now see the economy as their No. 1 issue.

That means the issue of Cuba could fade in importance, creating problems for both incumbents but especially for Lincoln Diaz-Balart. While both Diaz-Balart brothers are nationally known as hard-liners against the Castro regime, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, who was born in Havana, is even more associated with the issue than his younger brother, according to Moreno, himself a Cuban-American.

“When people are concerned about their jobs, they’re less worried about foreign policy,” Moreno said.

Polls show a pair of tight races. A recent survey by Telemundo found Lincoln Diaz-Balart ahead of Martinez 48 percent to 43, while Mario Diaz-Balart led Democrat Joe Garcia, a well-known political operative and former chairman of the Miami-Dade County Democratic Party, 43 percent to 41.

That’s big news, since the Diaz-Balart brothers have routinely carried their districts with ease against relatively light competition. In 2006, a tough year for Republicans nationally, eight-term incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart won 60 percent of the vote while his brother, who is in his third term, won 59 percent.

In Cuban-American candidates Martinez and Garcia, Democrats note they have found two challengers capable of serious fundraising.

While the Diaz-Balart brothers will have more cash on hand in the final weeks before the election, both challengers have enough money to keep things interesting. In addition, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is already running an ad in both districts and has reserved additional airtime.

Republicans have taken note. The National Republican Congressional Committee has reserved $1 million in ad time in each district, and has already begun running an ad against Raul Martinez.

The Miami Herald recently endorsed Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart as well as Raul Martinez.

{mospagebreak}Both Moreno and McManus say another factor helping the two challengers is the growing non-Cuban Hispanic population. But Carlos Curbelo, a spokesman for both Diaz-Balart campaigns, said internal polls show the incumbents are “very competitive” among all Hispanic voters. He notes that the two have highlighted their support for the Colombia free trade agreement, popular with Colombian-Americans, as well as their support for immigration reform.

“We actually think that’s very good for us,” he said, as new voters see the incumbents “as fighting for them.”

In Martinez, Democrats probably have found the candidate with the best chance of defeating Diaz-Balart, but he comes with baggage that the incumbent is using against him in what has been a negative and personal campaign.

{mosads}In 1990, Martinez was indicted on extortion charges related to cash he allegedly received from developers who received zoning approvals. Martinez, who insisted the case was politically motivated, was convicted on the charges, but the conviction was later reversed. Two other trials ended with hung juries.

Diaz-Balart’s campaign has brought up this history, and tried to contrast the incumbent’s record of “integrity and effective service” with what it described in a Sept. 26 release as Martinez’s history of “disgraceful behavior and corruption.”

Martinez has responded by highlighting connections between Lincoln Diaz-Balart and a Puerto Rican state senator indicted on bribery and wire fraud charges, who claims to have traveled to Miami with a colleague who carried a suitcase of cash meant for Diaz-Balart’s reelection campaign. State Democratic officials have played up the story, which Diaz-Balart has denied and said amounts to defamation.

In the battle for the 25th district, Garcia has portrayed Diaz-Balart as a loyal foot soldier for President Bush who is so focused on a hard line against Cuba that he has lost sight of the real needs of his district.

Diaz-Balart has touted his record of bringing federal funds to his district, and has pilloried Garcia as “Enron Joe” for raising utility fees as head of the Florida Public Service Commission.

Moreno labels both races as toss-ups, but, based on his own polling, thinks Martinez has a better chance than Garcia of pulling off an upset, although Moreno hedges that his work in Lincoln Diaz-Balart’s district is incomplete.

“None of the candidates in the districts have closed the deal,” he said.