Dems high on 2010 recruits for Senate; GOP sees hope

On the heels of two successful cycles, Democrats may have an easier job recruiting top candidates in 2010 than they did in 2008. Republican sources say they aren’t far behind, as many believe the party has hit the bottom and there’s nowhere to go but up.

Democrats won two seats in 2008 on the backs of candidates who were not their first choices, including Sens.-elect Kay Hagan (D-N.C.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.). In party strategists’ minds, scoring top-level recruits will put them in good position to gain a significant number of seats for a third-straight cycle.

{mosads}And while both parties are working to line up their favorite candidates, there are still several races subject to uncertainty.

Republicans have 19 seats up for grabs in 2010, but that doesn’t include a possible resignation from Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas). Democrats have at least 15 seats up next cycle, not including that of Cabinet appointee Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).

And then there’s President-elect Obama’s old seat, which may be filled by a Democratic governor or subject to a special election, which could turn the seat red.

But the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has scored its first recruiting victory in Houston Mayor Bill White, perhaps the highest-profile Democrat in Texas. White decided over the weekend to run for Hutchison’s seat. Hutchison has filed the committee paperwork for a 2010 gubernatorial run. The filing does not commit her to the race and her Senate seat is not up until 2012, and Texas law does not require her to resign from the Senate while running for governor.

Todd Olsen, a spokesman for Hutchison’s Austin-based gubernatorial committee, told The Hill in December if Hutchison did resign from the Senate early, she would ask Gov. Rick Perry (R) to hold a special election to fill the seat. Perry also has the option of appointing an interim senator.

White’s entry gives Democrats a decent shot in one of the reddest states in the country two years after the party’s under-funded challenger to Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) clocked in at 43 percent of the vote.

“The 2010 cycle presents good opportunities across the map for Democrats, with vulnerable targets in both blue states and red states,” said DSCC spokesman Matt Miller. The list of candidates Democrats are hoping to coax into other Senate contests is unusually long, and unusually strong, in states like North Carolina, Missouri, Florida and elsewhere.

Topping the party’s wish list is Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, who received more votes in her 2008 reelection bid than any other statewide candidate. Carnahan’s name is well-known around the state; she’s the daughter of ex-Sen. Jean Carnahan (D-Mo.) and the late ex-Gov. Mel Carnahan (D), and brother Russ Carnahan (D-Mo.) represents a suburban St. Louis district.

Carnahan could decide to run for Sen. Kit Bond’s (R-Mo.) seat. The Republican has not said whether he plans to run for a fifth term in 2010, and a recent poll commissioned for the liberal Daily Kos website showed Bond leading Carnahan by a slim 47 percent-to-43 percent margin.

Democrats will also turn to a top vote-getter in North Carolina, where Attorney General Roy Cooper won more votes than any other statewide candidate in 2008. After Hagan pulled out a surprise victory over Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) this cycle, Democrats hope to convince Cooper to challenge Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), who will run for a second term in 2010.

Then again, Hagan beat Dole largely because she was able to convince Tar Heel voters that Dole had lost touch with the state. Burr, who is reportedly far more attentive to North Carolina than Dole was, begins the cycle in a stronger position than his erstwhile colleague did two years ago.

Another of Democrats’ potential top-tier recruits, Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D), initially took herself out of the race against Sen. Mel Martinez (R-Fla.). But Martinez’s decision to retire, which he announced earlier this month, has led Sink to reconsider.

Republicans have their own highly touted recruit considering the race, as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R) has said he will test the waters. Should Bush, still highly popular in the Sunshine State, jump into the race, he would give Republicans a better-than-even chance of holding onto the seat. Sink also faces the prospect of a possible primary with Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.), who is said to be considering a run.

In Kentucky, Sen. Jim Bunning (R) narrowly won reelection in 2004, making him vulnerable to any of a number of ambitious Democrats. Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo (D), who narrowly lost to Bunning last time around, is considering taking another shot, he told The Hill on Monday. Attorney General Jack Conway (D) and state Auditor Crit Luallen (D) have begun actively contemplating the race as well.

{mospagebreak}Two vulnerable Republicans could attract large fields of potential Democratic challengers. At least two members of Congress, along with MSNBC anchor Chris Matthews, are considering challenging Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.). In Ohio, Sen. George Voinovich (R) could face off against Rep. Betty Sutton (D) or Rep. Tim Ryan (D).

And the Democrats’ wish list of candidates includes several long shots.

As Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) prepares to run for a fourth term, Democrats are pressuring three-term Gov. John Lynch (D) to get into the race. Lynch has faced only token opposition in his two reelection bids and remains the most popular figure in Granite State politics. Still, he has been coy about whether he will run for Senate or seek a fourth two-year term as governor in 2010.

{mosads}Reps. Paul Hodes (D-N.H.) and Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.), who both won their first reelection bids this November, are contemplating bids of their own, with Hodes seen as the candidate most likely to enter the race.

And Democrats hold out hope that Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D), who will be forced out by term limits in 2010, could give them a strong candidate for retiring Sen. Sam Brownback’s (R-Kan.) seat.

Republicans seem to have a shorter list of top-flight candidates. Alongside Florida’s Bush, the GOP holds out hope that Rep. Pete King (R-N.Y.) can contend against whichever Democrat is appointed to Clinton’s seat.

A trio of incumbent governors could give Republicans an edge against Democratic incumbents, though all three are seen as unsure about running.

North Dakota Gov. John Hoeven (R) is a constant recruitment target, but he is seen as reluctant to run against popular Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.).

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has been mentioned as a possible challenger to Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.), but some wonder whether Schwarzenegger would want to serve in a body of 100.

Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle (R) will be term-limited in 2010, and while she may contemplate a challenge to Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), she would face a decidedly uphill battle against the state’s political icon.

The GOP also has had problems recruiting a candidate against Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), widely seen as the most vulnerable Democrat in 2010. Two prominent potential opponents, including Rep. Jon Porter (R-Nev.), lost reelection bids in 2008; and, making matters worse, the first announced– candidate against Reid, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki (R), was indicted just days after he announced his bid.

Officials with the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) declined to comment for this article.

But incoming NRSC Chairman Cornyn has already spoken with a number of potential candidates, according to a source close to the Texas senator. With reports that Sen. Ken Salazar (D-Colo.) is on the brink of accepting an appointment as Interior secretary, on Tuesday, Cornyn began reaching out to Colorado Republicans to ask their opinions about a possible race against Salazar’s replacement.