As Dems eye his seat, Bunning faces tough choice on reelection

Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) barely held onto his seat five years ago, and some are questioning whether he’ll run again in 2010.

Several Republican sources tell The Hill that GOP figures are considering how to urge Bunning to forgo another campaign as they reach the conclusion he would lose the race.

{mosads}Meanwhile, several top Democrats are considering a challenge to the two-term Republican as the GOP suffers losses in the reddest of regions and four GOP senators already have announced their retirements.

And a battle for the Bluegrass State will be an important test of how far Democrats’ new reach extends, and whether the party’s successes in 2006 and 2008 can be duplicated in the coming cycle.

Though Democrats relish the chance to take Bunning on, some in both parties believe it’s increasingly unlikely he will run for a third term. Bunning has insisted several times that he will seek another six years in office, but his financial status has raised questions about his commitment to run.

Through Sept. 30, the last period for which reports are available, Bunning had just $175,000 in his campaign account. And several observers said missed votes at the start of the 111th Congress raised warning flags about Bunning’s interest in remaining a senator.

Through Tuesday, Bunning had missed every vote this year. He was on hand to grill Treasury Secretary-designate Tim Geithner on Wednesday and he voted yes on the nomination of Secretary of State-designate Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Bunning has said he will run again. “It’s a free country,” Bunning said in a statement to The Hill.

“Anybody can run for anything they choose. I am gearing up and I look forward to the challenge of taking on whoever comes out of the Democrat primary in May of 2010.”

The political climate could give Bunning pause as well. In 2004, as then-President Bush headed to a 20-point win in the Bluegrass State, Bunning trailed on election night, relying on late-arriving absentee ballots to eke out a 23,000-vote win out of the 1.7 million cast.

In 2010, “this will be the top race in the state. There are no coattails,” said former Bunning opponent Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo (D).

Mongiardo came close to defeating Bunning in the 2004 contest, fighting against a difficult current for Democrats that year. A little-known state senator four years ago, Mongiardo impressed national Democrats with his fundraising abilities, and, after several Bunning missteps, came closer than many expected.

Mongiardo, who now boasts a bigger profile as the state’s lieutenant governor, is among the leading Democrats considering a bid this year. He said he’ll make a decision by March. He could face a primary against any of three other prominent Democratic candidates — Attorney General Jack Conway, Auditor Crit Luallen and Rep. Ben Chandler.

But the target of each candidate’s early fire is Bunning.

“Kentucky deserves two U.S. senators that are working day and night,” Mongiardo told The Hill. “Sen. Bunning has not even been [in Washington] for votes.”

Bunning, Conway says, “hasn’t cast a prominent figure up there on the Hill. He’s repeatedly been ranked on the lower tier of senators in terms of effectiveness.

“Kentucky is ready for a different generation of leadership.”

“We need leadership in Washington that is more focused on our problems at home and is more attentive to what’s going on at home,” Luallen said.

{mospagebreak}Both Mongiardo and Conway called Bunning ineffective despite his recent prominence in opposition to various bailouts for the financial and auto industries. Each said Bunning was right to criticize the lack of congressional oversight but claimed that, even when his party was in the majority, Bunning hadn’t done enough.

Bunning “was a long and ardent critic of the Federal Reserve, and I thought Congress relied too much on the words of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, as if they were an oracle,” Conway said.

{mosads}Republicans could benefit if any two of the Democrats seen as most likely to enter the race face off in a primary. Mongiardo and Conway each estimated that the race could cost between $6 million and $8 million, higher if they have to get past each other first.

As Mongiardo, Conway and Luallen eye the race against Bunning, they are also clearly eyeing each other.

“He’s got a bright future if he develops some accomplishments,” Mongiardo said of Conway.

“He’s welcome to come over any time and see what I’ve done,” Conway shot back. “Dan Mongiardo and I get along fine.”

Mongiardo, a physician by training, has signaled that his campaign will revolve around a push to reform the country’s healthcare system. Conway said he would focus on education as a way to boost the state’s historically poor economy.

Any primary is likely to pull in two of the state’s most prominent Democratic alliances.

Mongiardo ran on a ticket with Gov. Steve Beshear (D), who easily ousted a scandal-plagued Republican in 2007. Mongiardo said, should he enter the race, he expects Beshear to endorse him and assist in raising money.

Conway and Luallen have worked together for years after Conway served as Luallen’s deputy in former Gov. Paul Patton’s (D) office. Conway called Luallen “an older sister,” and the two have had conversations about the Senate race.

“Jack and I are close friends as well as political allies,” Luallen said. “You won’t see a scenario develop where we run against each other.”

If Chandler decides to run for the top spot, he would add the state’s most famous Democratic name to the mix. Chandler’s grandfather, A.B. “Happy” Chandler, served as governor and senator, and the current congressman served a term as state auditor and two as attorney general.

Chandler is considered Democrats’ top recruiting target, though with a coveted seat on the House Appropriations Committee, he is seen as possibly reluctant to gamble on a Senate race.

“With the economic downturn, the stimulus package and the arrival of the new administration, my focus in the past few months has been on Central Kentucky families,” Chandler said. “I may have something to say in the future, but I think that it is too early for me to comment on 2010 in any significant way.”

If Bunning decides against a third term, Secretary of State Trey Grayson (R) is considered a likely candidate. GOP Reps. Ed Whitfield and Geoff Davis are also mentioned as potential successors.