Republicans are wagering heavily on stimulus as major 2010 issue

The stimulus package has emerged as the first major campaign issue of the 2010 election cycle, and a Republican Party eyeing a return to the majority is going all-in.

The near-universal GOP opposition to the stimulus means that, for 2010 at least, Democrats own the result. Republicans, meanwhile, are in the awkward position of banking on it, at least electorally, to fail.
GOPers seeking an early advantage have already seized on the package.

{mosads}Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), who some thought might be a key congressional ally of the Obama administration, sent an e-mail to supporters Tuesday effectively launching his 2010 reelection campaign on his opposition to the package.

McCain has also distributed an anti-stimulus petition through his political action committee in recent days.

“Their proposals will not stimulate economic growth or create jobs,” McCain said in the campaign e-mail, adding: “With so much at stake, now is not the time to step away from my work in the Senate.”

McCain, like other Republicans, is taking care to separate the stimulus from the popular president, though.
Republicans note that while a solid majority of Americans say they approve of the stimulus when pollsters use Obama’s name, their support sans Obama is far lower.

They point to a Gallup poll from last week, which stated that 38 percent of Americans wanted the stimulus package passed as it was written, while 37 percent wanted major changes.

A new Pew poll also has shown the debate over the initially very popular stimulus polarizing, with support falling to 51 percent and opposition at 34 percent.

Ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), a former director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) who is launching his own Senate candidacy in a blue-trending state, also leapt to criticize the package.

“A critical opportunity has been missed by Senate Democrats,” Portman said.

Rep. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.), who is running for the Senate, has similarly pointed out his votes against the recent bailout and the stimulus. Moran faces a competitive GOP primary with Rep. Todd Tiahrt.

About the only major Republican speaking out favorably on the package is Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, who stumped with Obama on Tuesday and is eyeing a Senate candidacy.

But Crist’s sky-high approval ratings among voters in both parties — 73 percent in a recent poll — suggest he can do just about anything he wants at this point. And even Crist was casting the bill as a matter of political exigency, as opposed to something he supports.

“I’m trying to be practical and pragmatic and make sure Florida gets its share,” Crist told The Hill.

The GOP points to Obama’s public-relations blitz, which included the Crist appearance and a primetime news conference Monday, as evidence that Democrats aren’t confident of their political plan.

At that news conference, Obama criticized political posturing on the stimulus and suggested several times that Republicans were looking for electoral gain.

He said he got the feeling that “maybe we’re playing politics instead of actually trying to solve problems for the American people.”

The news conference was also a reminder that even a good plan might not pay political dividends. Asked about Vice President Biden’s suggestion that the administration’s economic efforts have a 30 percent chance of failure, Obama acknowledged that no one thing will solve every problem.

Republicans are comparing the issue to illegal immigration, which split relatively evenly along party lines in polling but inflamed GOP activists and donors so much that it left politicians little choice.

“Calls coming into congressional offices are heavily weighted against — almost immigration-like volume,” said a Republican operative. “And it sets the stage for Republicans reclaiming the mantle of fiscal responsibility, which will play out on countless issues over the next two years.”

In the end, only three Republicans voted for the stimulus package — all in the Senate — while 11 Democrats voted against it — all in the House.

The only senator who is up in 2010 to break party ranks was Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), who is in the unenviable position of dealing with both a blue-trending state and a conservative backlash over the vote.

Potential primary opponents like former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) and businessman Glen Meakem bristled at Specter’s vote and now have new motivation to challenge him next year.

“I really thought he was trying to avoid a primary challenge, and it’s very clear to me from this vote that he is really not anymore,” Meakem said, adding: “I think leading conservatives are going to coalesce around a candidate here in the next month or two.”

Another candidate with plenty riding on the vote is potential Senate candidate Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.), who has taken to criticizing Democratic leaders over their conduct.

Shuler drew a sharp rebuke from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) after he said Reid and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) “failed” to make the package bipartisan.

Shuler is considered a top potential challenger to Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.) in 2010. And even if Shuler stays in the House, he could face a tough race in a very conservative district.

Unlike Shuler, many of those breaking ranks on the stimulus vote are safe, including several Blue Dog Democrats and Republican Maine Sens. Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins.

Blue Dog member Allen Boyd (D-Fla.) is facing a primary challenge from state Sen. Al Lawson, meaning his vote could be a liability. In announcing his intentions Wednesday, Lawson signaled that the vote would be front-and-center in the race.

But the aisle-crossing by others, including a quartet of freshman Democrats in conservative districts — Reps. Walt Minnick (Idaho), Frank Kratovil (Md.), Parker Griffith (Ala.) and Bobby Bright (Ala.) — suggests at least some are expecting the stimulus to mete out political consequences.

The issue has also split the two men who would be the second senator from Minnesota. Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken have come down along party lines in a pair of op-eds. Despite Coleman’s ongoing challenge to Franken’s 225-vote win, the two have taken to campaigning as though voters still haven’t weighed in.

“Fairly or unfairly, if markets do not recover, this vote will remain a top GOP rallying cry,” said Cook Political Report analyst David Wasserman. “And if markets do come back, Republicans will attack other big items on Democrats’ wish list.”