Campaign

Crist looms over little-known crop of Democrats in Florida

by Aaron Blake - 02/24/09 5:42 PM ET

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist’s now-public deliberations over whether to enter the state’s Senate race have put things completely on hold for Republicans interested in the seat.

But for a group of ragtag Democrats, it serves as a reality check.

{mosads}A trio of Democrats is beginning the long process of waging a wide-open primary, with the knowledge that the winner might be a severe underdog against the GOP governor.

Many thought the worst had passed when former Gov. Jeb Bush (R) and state Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) opted not to run for retiring Sen. Mel Martinez’s (R-Fla.) seat, thereby freeing things up for everyone else. But that was before Crist showed interest.

Each Democrat insists that Crist’s potential entry into the race doesn’t change the calculus, but they all acknowledge his political might and the challenge it poses.

State Sen. Dan Gelber (D) admitted Crist would be the immediate front-runner and worried aloud that donors would be scared off.

“If Gov. Crist runs, there may be a different judgment” on how winnable the race is, Gelber said. “If he’s not, and it’s an open seat that’s really reachable on any day, then obviously the money will flow easier.”

Gelber said it’s silly to pretend that Crist wouldn’t change the outlook of the race, but added that he can’t proceed wondering what will happen.

Privately, though, many Democrats say Crist is close to unbeatable at this point.

“He’s a monster,” said a source close to the Florida delegation. “No one’s going to want to risk running against him. It’s got to weigh on everyone’s mind.”

Stacy Ritter, a popular talk radio host who headed President Obama’s campaign in Broward County, said Democrats don’t stand a chance if Crist runs.

“If it’s Charlie, it’s a done deal. Crist takes that Senate seat,” she said on her show Saturday.

Indeed, early polling on the race has shown Crist to be a heavy favorite. A Quinnipiac survey released last week shows him sporting a 67 percent approval rating and 22 percent disapproval, and another recent poll from the GOP firm Strategic Vision had him leading every Democratic comer 2-to-1 with well over 50 percent of the vote.

But that’s partially because none of the Democrats are well-known. Beyond Sink and former Sen. Bob Graham, Democrats don’t have a big name that the vast majority of voters will recognize instantly.

The darkest horse on the Democratic side right now is the openly gay mayor of North Miami, Kevin Burns. He said Democrats would be motivated to take down Crist, because they don’t want him to gain prominence.

“If he’s in the race, they want to make sure he does not get elected, because they don’t want to give him more national exposure,” Burns said. “If he’s a senator, there are some people who are concerned that might help him to move up the ladder.”

Indeed, though he could feasibly serve six more years in the governor’s mansion, becoming a senator would help the 52-year-old Crist stay on the national scene for many more years to come, without term limits.

He has run for Senate before, in 1996, and has proven restless in all of his previous offices. People on the ground in Florida say signs increasingly point to his interest in running for Senate again, though he won’t officially decide until after the current legislative session is over, in May.

When asked about his Senate ambitions on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, Crist said he was undecided on the race and was focused on the upcoming state legislative session.

“I’m focused on Florida. And I think it’s important in my case — we’ve got a session that begins the first week in March. I’ve got to get through what’s happening in the Florida economy. I’m focused on that and that’s where my focus has been and will stay,” he said.

In the meantime, Democrats are already working on their lines of attack. Principal among them is the notion that Crist would be effectively abandoning a state in the midst of economic peril.

Florida has been hit particularly hard by the housing crisis and faces significant challenges in the next two years.

“He’s going to have to answer a lot of very tough questions, should he run; the state is in terrible economic condition,” said Florida Democratic consultant Freddy Balsera. “He’s going to have to explain why he’s seeking office somewhere else.”

Before Democrats can get to Crist, though, they will have to duke it out among themselves.

Gelber, Burns and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-Fla.) are the three candidates currently in the race, and Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio (D) and Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.) are still weighing their options.

Iorio won’t discuss her timetable for a decision, but notes that polling is encouraging.

Because all three candidates in the race hail from the Miami area, her status as a candidate from the Tampa Bay area — the state’s biggest media market — could help her chances.

“From a statistical standpoint, those candidates over the past many years have done very well in statewide races,” Iorio said. “You don’t discount that, because the statistics are there.”

At the same time, Iorio acknowledged that things can change and regionalism isn’t a clincher.

Gelber said the winner will have to grow his or her base regardless of where they come from.

“Virtually everybody on our side is a regional candidate, at best,” Gelber. “None of us should suffer the illusion that we have a statewide footprint.”

In fact, each of the Democrats seems to relish underdog status — perhaps none more than Meek, who confronted doubters even before the Crist news broke.

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The Obama comparisons are beginning to swirl for the young, African-American congressman. And they would be even more poignant against Crist.

Meek, though, prefers a different analogy: David and Goliath.

“I’ve always played the David role, and no matter who enters the race, I’ll remain David going up against Goliath,” Meek said. “We know how that story ended.”