Campaign

Pence out of running?

by Jonathan Easley - 02/25/15 6:00 AM ET

Mike Pence hasn’t fully closed the door on a presidential bid in 2016, but he might be running out of time to swing it open.

The Indiana governor dodged questions about his presidential ambitions on four different occasions in an interview this week on “Fox News Sunday.” He wouldn’t even acknowledge what he’s said before — that he would make a decision about whether to seek the White House or reelection when Indiana’s legislative session closes in late April.

{mosads}“It’s the hallmark of Hoosier humility,” said Kellyanne Conway, a Republican strategist and pollster. “He doesn’t need the attention on him.”

But if Pence is even slightly considering a White House run, his Friday evening speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) might be one of his last chances to energize activists if he does take the plunge.

Unlike his fellow in-session colleagues, Govs. Chris Christie (N.J.) and Scott Walker (Wis.), Pence hasn’t made overt moves to staff up, take trips to early primary states or court major donors. Pence, however, is the only one who would have to give up a reelection bid as a heavy favorite.

While Walker, Christie and other current and former governors will be giving major addresses at CPAC, Pence will speak at the prestigious but low-key Reagan address — one of the few speeches at the grassroots confab that activists and general admission entrants won’t be able to attend.

“If you’re running for president, you have to do it the right way and be all in. If you can’t do that until the legislative session is over, it’s better to get that behind you so you have solidified your record of cutting taxes and creating jobs,” said Keith Appell, a Republican strategist and Pence supporter. “Then, you have that record to run on and can focus energies completely on running for the White House.”

Still, Pence’s reluctance has consequences. He’ll be excluded from the CPAC straw poll, potentially depriving him of national momentum coming out of the event. The conservative outlet that runs the poll only includes those candidates who have made meaningful moves toward a candidacy, and Pence’s verbal statement that a White House bid isn’t off the table didn’t cut it.

“You’d rather be active at this stage than not,” said Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak. “Time is precious. Donors and bundlers are aligning. Staff is starting to sign on. It sounds silly to say that it’s almost too late, but this process requires so much from you that it’s hard to play catch-up. It’s hard enough to do this when you have enough time.”

Appell, however, argues that there could be advantages to staying out of the fray this early.

“You can make a credible argument that those who get out there earliest have a leg up, but they’re also vulnerable to stumbling earlier, so I think it evens out,” the Pence ally said.

Other supporters also say the governor has some inherent advantages that could boost him for a later run for the White House. Chief among them is his potential to appeal to both establishment voters and the conservative grassroots.

Pence, an evangelical Christian, embraced the Tea Party at an early stage. He was also chairman of the influential conservative Republican Study Committee during his 12 years in Congress.

But in that time, Pence was also close with GOP leadership, landing a top spot on the House Foreign Affairs Committee. And his executive experience running Indiana is the kind of thing that appeals to mainstream Republicans.

At only 55 years old, Pence could run in four or eight years, when his term is up. But some think this could be his moment.

“Pence fits the unique need for the Republican Party right now,” said Scott Reed, a senior political strategist at the Chamber of Commerce. “He’s an outside-of-Washington-based governor and a reformer that appeals to social conservatives and the Tea Party. He’s almost right out of central casting. He also has exceptional communication skills that some say are Reagan-esque.”

However, Reed noted Pence was still “a young man, and he’s got a lot of years ahead of him.”

The ability to raise money looms large over the Republican field, with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush reportedly hoping to raise $100 million in just the first quarter of 2015. If Pence waits until May to begin courting donors, he’ll be in a deep fundraising hole.

But his backers say he’ll be well-positioned to play catch-up. The governor has deep ties to the network of conservative groups backed by the billionaire donors Charles and David Koch. Marc Short, a longtime Pence adviser, is now president of Koch-backed Freedom Partners, and other former Pence staffers have also infiltrated the network, giving him a foothold in a powerful organization that plans to spend nearly $1 billion this cycle.

In an interview with The Hill, Chase Downham, the Indiana state director for Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity, ticked off a litany of Pence accomplishments, citing expanded access to charter schools, a push for a balanced budget amendment, lower income taxes for individuals and corporations, and the elimination of the inheritance tax.

“We had a great eight years of public policy under [former Gov.] Mitch Daniels … and Gov. Pence has built on that record,” Downham said. “He’s been very supportive of our efforts to cut income taxes in particular.”

Pence also has close ties to the influential conservative Club for Growth — its new president, David McIntosh, preceded Pence in the House. Immediately following CPAC, Pence will join other possible GOP contenders to address the fiscally conservative group in Florida.

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Still, it will be a challenge for him to break through the crowded field. In a CNN-ORC poll released in late December, he came in 15th among possible GOP candidates — dead last, at only 1 percent support. He was dropped from the next survey.

That has some Republicans convinced that he’ll run for reelection as governor in 2016 instead of aiming for the White House. Indiana law bars a candidate from running for state and federal office simultaneously.

“They’re doing the bare minimum to keep that path open to him right now,” Mackowiak said. “He’s a very religious man, and I think he feels a calmness that he’s where he’s supposed to be right now. By May, a lot will have developed, and unless there’s an opening or a groundswell, I think he’s probably just looking at reelection.”