Florida Senate race attracts a crowd

Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) decision to run for the White House sets in motion what is likely to be the most competitive and important GOP Senate primary of the cycle. 

With Republicans on defense in 2016, the incumbent’s choice not to run for reelection opens up a seat in a swing state that’s crucial to their hopes of holding onto their newfound majority. 

{mosads}Seeing few opportunities at play in Senate primaries otherwise, conservative groups quickly signaled they would line up behind Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), urging the two-term lawmaker to run. 

But before Rubio even launched his presidential bid on Monday, the nascent race had already been jolted by two surprise announcements last week from candidates who won’t run. 

Florida Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater, who had been galvanizing support among establishment Republicans in the state, shocked political watchers by taking a pass this weekend. Attorney General Pam Bondi said she’d seek reelection instead of running for Senate.

“Once Atwater did that, it created a sense of critical mass,” said one prominent Republican strategist in the state. “Pretty much the whole party … was ready to get in behind him. It was a shock wave Saturday, when everyone woke up to a brand new world and had to reassess their prospects.”

Fortunately for Republicans, the bench is deep.

In addition to DeSantis, Reps. Tom Rooney, Vern Buchanan and David Jolly, former Florida House Speaker Will Weatherford, Lt. Gov. Carlos López-Cantera and state Sen. Don Gaetz are on the growing list of names Republicans in the state say could get into the race.

If DeSantis runs, his candidacy could set up a contest that breaks along Tea Party and establishment lines. He announced Tuesday that he’ll spend the next few weeks testing the waters to see if a Senate bid is the right move for him.

In a statement, the 36-year-old nodded to Rubio, saying it was the Florida senator’s Tea Party-fueled 2010 campaign that first inspired him to run for office. DeSantis also echoed Rubio’s presidential announcement, saying the nation needs “a new generation of leaders.”

DeSantis has a biography and background conservatives love. He’s an Iraq War veteran and one of the founding members of the House Freedom Caucus, a group of conservative lawmakers who share a frustration with Republican leadership.

His Tuesday announcement provoked an avalanche of positive responses from national conservative groups. 

FreedomWorks said it’s been pushing DeSantis to get into the race and called him “exactly the kind of courageous conservative we need in the U.S. Senate.” Club for Growth President David McIntosh called DeSantis “an unwavering supporter of limited government and pro-growth fiscal policies.”

In addition, the Senate Conservatives Fund said it “will seriously consider supporting” the Florida Republican, and Citizens United went further, announcing that, if DeSantis runs, the group “will be with him every step of the way and will dedicate substantial resources” to his effort.

DeSantis raised $1.1 million in the last cycle and ended 2014 with $700,000 in the bank.

But Republicans in the state say Weatherford, the former Speaker, has cross-party appeal and could rally the establishment while peeling some conservative grassroots support away from DeSantis.

Many in the state view Weatherford as a party star and rare political talent. He’s garnered comparisons to Rubio for his fast rise, becoming Florida House Speaker at the age of 32. One GOP strategist called Weatherford “a ready-made candidate in terms of feel, posture, likeability and charm.”

“He’s very highly respected and well-regarded by Republicans all over Florida, and would have tremendous support across the state if he runs,” said Florida GOP consultant Justin Sayfie, who runs one of the state’s most influential blogs. 

“He’s someone that people in the state hope has a bright political future. It’s hard to predict whether he’d clear the field. I’m not sure that’s possible in 2016, but he would certainly mobilize a very significant part of Florida’s Republican Party.”

Weatherford has kept his intentions close to the vest. Earlier this year, he and his brothers formed a venture capital firm and he has a young family. But some Republicans in the state believe that, with Atwater gone, he might reconsider.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, the two names getting the most attention right now are Jolly and Rooney.

Jolly won a tough special election last year to succeed the late Rep. Bill Young (R-Fla.), his former boss. He hails from Tampa Bay, which boasts a deep well of GOP primary voters and is one of the biggest media markets in the state.

Rooney told The Hill on Tuesday he’s also thinking about the race. A close friend of Rubio’s, he was on hand for the incumbent’s presidential announcement on Monday. They attended the University of Miami together, and their political careers took off at about the same time.

Republicans in the state say Rooney is a clean slate and has deep political ties in Florida. He lives in a safe district, so he hasn’t had to demonstrate his fundraising chops yet. 

However, Rooney comes from wealth. His grandfather, Art Rooney, founded the Pittsburgh Steelers, and his family is still involved in the team’s leadership.

Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos López-Cantera has said he’s very close to getting into the race. In 2014, he became the state’s first Hispanic lieutenant governor and cut his teeth during the election that year by spearheading Gov. Rick Scott’s (R) Hispanic outreach.

The primary could also be upended by a self-funded candidate. Gaetz could fill that role — he told the Miami Herald on Tuesday he might be willing to spend some of his $25 million fortune on a Senate bid.

Whoever emerges will likely be taking on Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Fla.), a centrist Democrat and former Republican, in the general election. Murphy has a solid base of establishment support in the race, although he could still face a primary challenger.

Liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) is considering challenging Murphy from the left, and some progressives in the state are itching for the fight.