No NY special election upset on the horizon

Don’t expect another New York special election upset next week. 

Political insiders from both parties predict Daniel Donovan, the Republican district attorney from Staten Island, will cruise to victory next Tuesday over City Councilman Vincent Gentile (D) in the race to replace disgraced former Rep. Michael Grimm (R).

{mosads}“If you’re gambling, you bet on Donovan,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a New York-based Democratic strategist. “The only question is how big the spread will be.”

Donovan was the prosecutor at the center of the investigation into the death of Eric Garner, an unarmed black man who died in July, when a police officer put him in a chokehold after confronting him for allegedly selling loose cigarettes.

The Republican faced criticism in December, when a grand jury decided not to indict the New York police officer. The decision provoked protests across the country and remains a touchstone for many, as the nation continues to be roiled by protests and riots over allegations of police brutality, most recently in Baltimore.

But the Garner case has played almost no role in the special election, and Democrats say Gentile was wise not to make an issue out of it because Staten Island, with its large population of cops, firemen and other law enforcement officials, is one of the most pro-police districts in the nation.

The May 5 special election is to replace Grimm, who resigned in January after pleading guilty to one count of tax evasion amid 20 other federal counts ranging from perjury to obstruction. 

Donovan had some of the biggest names in Empire State politics campaigning and fundraising for him, including former New York City Mayors Michael Bloomberg (I) and Rudy Giuliani (R), as well as former Gov. George Pataki (R). 

The Republican has outraised Gentile by a 3-1 margin, and national Democrats haven’t come to their candidate’s aid. Outside groups, like the powerful Chamber of Commerce, are running late TV ads for Donovan, even as the outcome of the race seems increasingly certain.

While there’s no public polling on the race, the 11th District leans conservative in nonpresidential election years. Donovan is popular in Staten Island, which accounts for two-thirds of the district, while Gentile, who hails from the Brooklyn part of the district, lacks name recognition.

There have been rocky moments in the campaign for Donovan but nothing big enough to threaten the inevitable outcome, political watchers in the state say.

In the late stages of the campaign, Gentile has attacked Donovan for missing a handful of debates and panels. The Democrat has appeared alone or with the Green Party candidate, James Lane, giving him free rein to bash the front-runner.

On Tuesday, Donovan again skipped a debate, this time on NY1. Gentile called Donovan “the Staten Island Dodger” in an email to supporters, adding he was  “gutless.”

But the GOP nominee appeared at the two major televised debates earlier in the cycle, one in Brooklyn and one in Staten Island. The rest of the events have been sparsely attended, and few believe the argument that Donovan is hiding from voters will impact the race.

Donovan’s lead is believed to be so substantial that Republicans are warning against complacency. Special elections are notoriously low-turnout affairs, and some in the GOP are worried that party voters will stay home.

“My concern is low turnout,” said Mike Long, the chairman of the Conservative Party of New York State. “While I think Donovan is clearly the heavy favorite, every place I go people are saying he’ll have no problem, and that’s the problem. … People are likely to forget that May 5 is an election day here in 2015. There’s no feeling in the air that a special election is coming up.”

Still, Richard Flanagan, a professor of political science at the College of Staten Island at the City University of New York, says it would take an “historic collapse” in voter turnout for Gentile to pull out a win.

A Donovan win would buck recent historical precedent.

In previous New York special elections — to replace former Reps. Anthony Weiner (D), Chris Lee (R) and Eric Massa (D), all of whom were felled by sex scandals — voters elected a candidate from the other party to replace the disgraced congressman. Democrats don’t expect Gentile to continue that streak. 

Donovan will be up for reelection in 19 months and will need to turn his focus quickly to 2016. That race is expected to be a heavier lift, taking place in a deep blue state in a presidential year with Hillary Clinton, a former New York senator, likely at the top of the ticket for Democrats.

“If he pulls this off and wins, he’s going to have to start raising some very serious money for the general election in 2016,” said Long. “That’s going to be a more competitive race.”

For Democrats, it will be time to regroup, although there is some reason for optimism.

The party struggled for months to find a candidate to challenge Donovan, but Gentile ended up being a pleasant surprise, earning positive reviews as a smart campaigner, formidable fundraiser and strong debater. Many believe that he bested Donovan in their televised debates, catching him off guard and backing him into a corner on a handful of issues, even if it wasn’t enough to turn the tide of the race.

Democrats will likely have an easier time landing a top-tier candidate in 2016, a presidential year with a more liberal electorate. Former Rep. Michael McMahon (N.Y.), who served one term beginning in 2009 and was the last Democrat to hold the seat, is already being mentioned as a potential 2016 candidate even though he passed on the special election.