Dems eye Illinois seat amid challenge

Illinois Rep. Tammy Duckworth’s efforts to help Democrats retake the Senate have been complicated by an unexpected primary opponent with a well-funded campaign. 

Duckworth is the establishment pick and seen by most Democrats as the party’s best shot at taking down the vulnerable Sen. Mark Kirk (R), with endorsements from Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

{mosads}In Duckworth’s way, however, is Andrea Zopp, former president of the Chicago Urban League, who entered the Democratic primary race in May.

“Tammy Duckworth certainly doesn’t have an automatic victory, even though she is the presumed favorite,” said Dick Simpson, a University of Illinois at Chicago professor and former Chicago alderman.

“The real issue is whether Zopp can get traction.”

Both Democratic candidates posted strong fundraising numbers last quarter —Duckworth raised $1.2 million with $2.2 million cash on hand, while Zopp raised about $670,000 in half that time.

The third-quarter fundraising books, which close at the end of the month, will be vital for Zopp’s campaign as she looks to continue to prove her mettle.

Duckworth has a compelling background — as an Army helicopter pilot, she was shot down during the Iraq War and had to have both her legs amputated. But she rehabilitated and rose through the state Veterans Affairs ranks before winning a seat in Congress in 2012, where she holds plum
committee positions. 

Zopp has her own strong résumé. In addition to her Urban League position, Zopp was a federal prosecutor, an assistant state’s attorney, a business executive and a Chicago school board member. But she’s never held elected office.

A late-July poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) showed Duckworth with a 59-10 percentage-point lead over Zopp, as well as a more than 40-point lead with African-American Democratic primary voters, a group seen as a major Zopp constituency.  

Zopp is unfazed.

“I’m the best choice because of the nature of the real, challenging issues we have that are facing our state,” she said. “Once we get through the primary, name recognition will not be an issue.”

But that background has already proved to be a stumbling block, as Chicago editorial boards asked tough questions about the school system’s closure of 50 schools in 2013, when she was on the board.

Duckworth’s camp has kept the focus on Kirk and the GOP brand instead of engaging with Zopp.

“Tammy has said that the more people who are going around Illinois talking about Sen. Kirk’s failures, the better,” a Duckworth spokesman said, adding that the campaign isn’t “looking past” the primary.

Endorsements have become a factor in the primary.

Sadie Weiner, a DSCC spokeswoman, told The Hill that the group is “prepared to make sure that Tammy becomes the nominee … which she is well-positioned to do” and wouldn’t rule out offering a hand through the primary.

Zopp has tried to elevate that endorsement into a campaign issue, framing it as outsiders trying to force voters’ hands and bashing it as an affront to the Democratic process and to African-American women.

But Duckworth allies and outside experts are skeptical that the criticism will resonate with average voters.

One endorsement Duckworth didn’t get could prove to be an early setback. The Cook County Democratic Party, which includes Chicago, chose not to endorse a candidate.

Simpson said this shows that Duckworth is still not a “sure thing.” “Duckworth wasn’t strong enough to get the nomination,” he said.

“It’s not fatal, but it does show a weakness.”

The primary’s victor earns a chance at one of the country’s closest Senate races. Kirk is regularly rated as one of the most vulnerable incumbents, trailing Duckworth in the liberal-leaning PPP poll by six points.

The Democrats need to flip just five seats to regain control of the Senate, with as many as nine chances to topple an incumbent Republican.

The race will likely center on whether voters believe that Kirk is moderate enough for the purple state.

Democrats point to his support of Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis.) budget,
recent gaffes and a $1 million ad buy from an environmental group opposing Kirk as evidence in their favor.

“We are seeing his moderate image starting to fray,” a Duckworth spokesman said, specifically mentioning Kirk’s support for tax cuts and his accusation that President Obama wanted to “get nukes to Iran.”

After you’ve said that, Duckworth’s spokesman said, “it’s hard to come back to ‘Moderate Mark.’ ”

Kirk loyalists and his campaign manager, Kevin Artl, see Kirk’s history of outperforming Republicans at the top of the ticket as well as his willingness to buck the party as reasons why he’s in good shape for 2016.

“He’s taken the lead on issues like cleaning up the Great Lake, he was the only Republican in the Senate to vote against defunding Planned Parenthood and he’s been recognized by independent surveys as one of the most independent-leaning senators,” Artl said.

Simpson underscored the importance of that dynamic in the general election, especially ahead of a likely shutdown fight in Congress.

“If he can prove that he’s a moderate, that is the only thing that will be able to reelect him,” he said.

“There aren’t enough hardcore conservative Republican votes in the state to reelect Kirk; he has to pull over some independent or even Democratic voters.”