GOP establishment hits bottleneck in NH

Republican establishment candidates are stuck in a bottleneck in New Hampshire, with a sizable group of contenders unable to break away in the first-in-the-nation primary state.

In a state that has in the past favored mainstream conservatives such as Mitt Romney and John McCain, several centrist Republicans need a strong showing in New Hampshire to prove they’re viable in the states that follow. 

{mosads}Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie all face high stakes in the Feb. 9 primary, but none has been able to separate from the pack or significantly cut into Donald Trump’s lead there.  

“The center-right lane, the one that usually produces a winner in New Hampshire, is jumbled and, I expect, will stay jumbled for quite a while,” said former New Hampshire Attorney General Tom Rath, who is supporting Kasich for president.

“The real question is when this lane will get straightened out, or how it happens, or whether it happens in time for there to be a true consensus choice,” he continued. “The longer it takes, the longer you allow this fascination with Donald Trump and Ted Cruz to linger.”

The logjam is striking when compared to Iowa, where caucusgoers will cast ballots a week earlier. 

The cream appears to be separating there, with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) on a sharp upward trajectory that has him within reach of  retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. 

Combined, the two favorites of grassroots and evangelical voters account for 38 percent support in Iowa, according to the RealClearPolitics average, and they are within striking distance of real estate mogul Donald Trump, who leads with 26 percent support in the state.

But there are no signs that voters in New Hampshire are coalescing behind one or two establishment candidates, and none appears to have a competitive advantage in the state.

“It’s very fluid right now, more fluid than usual,” said former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.), a Bush supporter and columnist for The Hill. “But it’s almost always a contest. It would be unusual for someone to be running away with it at this point.”

The latest Boston Globe-Suffolk University survey is indicative of the morass.

Trump is currently in the lead, taking 22 percent support, twice as much as the next closest contender.

Rubio’s poll numbers have been rising in the state, but at 11 percent support, he is stuck in a crowded second tier of candidates.

Carson and Cruz take 10 percent and 9 percent support, respectively, but few Republicans on the ground in the state expect either will be among the top finishers on Election Day.

That leaves Kasich, at 9 percent, Bush,  at 8 percent, and Christie, at 4 percent. Each is jockeying to win over centrist Republican voters in the state. Other polls show similar results.

The huge and fractured field is keeping many of the candidates from gaining, as is the fact that so many of them are focusing on the state and in danger of being left behind without a strong showing there. 

Republicans don’t believe the field will be any smaller when votes are cast.

“None of these appear likely to be forced out because of money, especially when you can run on fumes because you have a super-PAC,” said former New Hampshire GOP chairman Fergus Cullen. 

Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie “all have the qualities New Hampshire voters look for and none has a reason to back down.” Cullen also includes businesswoman Carly Fiorina among those who could be considered establishment.

Rubio has a small edge in the polls, and political watchers view him as a candidate with potential to appeal to the state’s grassroots conservatives and establishment Republicans alike. 

But he’s made fewer trips to the state than any in the group, and Republicans wonder if his failure to commit to an ideological lane or to winning a specific state will keep his support spread too thin.

Bush has the money and infrastructure, but he has struggled on the trail and has generally underperformed, keeping him mired in single-digit poll numbers.

Kasich has been almost singularly focused on New Hampshire and has amassed an impressive group of backers, but so far his spending and presence aren’t creating the perception that he’s the man to beat.

Christie has some wind at his back, winning the endorsement over the weekend of the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper, as well as several other influential figures. But he has spent more time in the state than anyone and is still in seventh place, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

Republicans say Trump appears headed for a top finish, leaving only two tickets out of New Hampshire for the five establishment contenders.

“It’s an evenly matched, quality field, with each candidate bringing a different set of assets to the table, but none of them have overwhelmed,” Rath said.

“Everyone is still in the tryout stage, but sooner or later, stature begins to attach, and when it occurs, it’s mystical,” he continued. “You can’t necessarily describe why it’s happening or what drives it, but you know it when you see it. I haven’t seen it yet.”

The wild card in the race could be unaffiliated voters, who can participate in one of the two party primaries. Republicans believe that with Hillary Clinton the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination, more independents will flock to the hotly contested GOP primary.

Republicans say New Hampshire independents in the past have glommed on to an establishment candidate but acknowledge they could be enticed this cycle by Trump’s renegade campaign.

They worry that if independents fail to tip the scale on behalf of a centrist, the establishment candidates could split the vote on election day, which could hinder everyone’s claim of electability and pave the way for a finale featuring some combination of Trump, Cruz and Carson.

“These five [establishment] candidates have been making their arguments for nine months now and none in a very convincing manner,” said Cullen, who has hosted house parties for Bush and Kasich. “Is one of them suddenly going to become more compelling than the other? The worst-case scenario for me is that Cruz leaves the state able to argue that if you don’t like Trump, I’m your guy.”

But most Republicans still believe New Hampshire voters will coalesce behind the type of mainstream candidates they have supported in the past. 

“There will be a lot of movement, but in the end, in those last two weeks in January, it will sugar-off,” said Gregg, using a local term for the maple syrup separating process. 

“It will come down to Trump and then one or two rational conservatives,” Gregg said.