The Democratic primary in Maryland to replace outgoing Sen. Barbara Mikulski is in the final stretch as the race has escalated in recent weeks.
As early voting wrapped up on Thursday, both Reps. Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards crisscrossed the state in a last-ditch get-out-the-vote blitz, visiting early voting centers and making several Baltimore stops.
Now the candidates will make their final push before Tuesday’s election. The winner will be the heavy favorite to capture the seat in November in a state that hasn’t had a Republican senator since 1986.
The battle pits two rising stars in the party against each other, both gambling their House seats for a shot at the upper chamber.
Van Hollen was thought to be a cinch several months ago, owing to early support from Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and a significant fundraising advantage.
Over the last 13 months, Van Hollen has hauled in $8.1 million, compared to $3.4 million by Edwards, according to the Federal Elections Commission. Van Hollen has $1.8 million of cash on hand, while Edwards has $668,000.
But Edwards has kept pace, largely by raising questions about Van Hollen’s commitment to liberal ideals and attracting help from outside groups like EMILY’s List that have spent heavily to promote her bid.
The race has intensified in recent weeks following an ad from a pro-Edwards PAC — which cannot legally coordinate with the official campaign — that accused Van Hollen of caving to the National Rifle Association (NRA) by creating a carve-out for the group in a 2010 campaign finance bill.
A number of party leaders — including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.), Rep. Steny Hoyer (Md.) and the White House press secretary — were quick to criticize the ad as misleading. Those criticisms have been interpreted by some experts as tacit endorsements of Van Hollen — something the leaders have denied.
“The reason for the response was the representation was not honest,” Hoyer said. “I don’t think it indicates that they were taking sides.”
The White House asked that the ad be taken down because it included footage of President Obama’s emotional comments following the mass shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn.
Edwards quickly distanced herself from the ad’s decision to use Obama. But Van Hollen’s campaign still denounced her by association, and some Democratic strategists see Van Hollen benefitting from the episode.
“The super-PAC controversy … has given Van Hollen a new angle into this race that he didn’t have before, and that’s being able to use the president to his advantage or at least the White House, which is something that can resonate with these African-American voters that he may have not been able to tap into before,” Maryland Democratic strategist Andrew Feldman said.
Since then, Edwards has doubled down on the NRA angle, airing an ad of her own in which she says “my opponent and the NRA cut a back-room deal so they could keep buying off politicians.”
Glenn Kessler, The Washington Post’s fact-check guru, deemed Edwards’s claims “wildly off the mark,” granting her a Three Pinocchio rating — one shy of the most egregious Four Pinocchio “whoppers.”
Van Hollen wasted no time firing back, launching an ad that invokes Obama to promote his campaign. In that spot, the narrator frames the NRA super-PAC ad as “an attack ad from the campaign for Donna Edwards so untrue, so outrageous that President Obama said: Pull it down.”
In the last week, Van Hollen has opened up a lead in the polls. Two surveys found him leading by single-digits, and a Monmouth University poll released five days out showed him with a 16-point lead.
But strategists still see a close race that they say will largely hinge on turnout and demographics.
“Chris Van Hollen came into the race as the wide front-runner,” Feldman said. “I really do think it’s close, too close to call. It shows the power of the demographics.”
Maryland’s Democratic primary electorate consists of roughly 60 percent female voters and 30 percent African-American voters. Edwards holds an overwhelming lead among black voters in the polls, but strategists say she will also need to cut into Van Hollen’s support from male and white voters.
“Edwards needs to broaden her appeal beyond African-Americans,” said Democratic consultant Dave Heller, who works as Rep. Elijah Cummings’s (D-Md.) principal campaign strategist. “There’s no evidence she’s been able to make significant inroads with the white community and with male voters, hence a close race.”
Still, Edwards has an uneasy relationship with many members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), a tension that’s existed since she challenged, and defeated, popular CBC Rep. Albert Wynn (D-Md.) in 2008. Highlighting that friction, the CBC’s campaign arm declined to endorse Edwards in this year’s primary — a remarkable slight for a group that almost universally supports black candidates. Wynn, notably, is a member of the group’s board.
On top of that, just four individual members of the CBC — Reps. Lacy Clay (D-Mo.), Hank Johnson (D-Ga.), Gwen Moore (D-Wis.) and Robin Kelly (D-Ill.) — have offered Edwards their official backing.
Johnson said this week that it was a tough decision siding against Van Hollen, but the opportunity to send a black woman to the upper chamber, where only one has served previously, swung his decision.
“It really hurts me deeply to have to make a choice on this race, because Chris is a good friend and is also right on the issues,” he said. “We don’t have any African-American females serving in the United States Senate.”
Johnson said he was “surprised” the CBC PAC declined to endorse Edwards. He attributed that decision to Edwards’s “hard-charging” style, which has rubbed some colleagues the wrong way.
Approached this week, Edwards declined to comment.
Van Hollen’s campaign, for its part, is increasingly optimistic. They point to a recent letter from 100 African-American female community leaders in Maryland throwing their support behind the congressman. Van Hollen’s campaign has also previously released a series of endorsements from civil rights leaders in the state including those who helm local NAACP chapters.
Regional considerations are at play. While both Van Hollen and Edwards represent parts of the Washington suburbs, neither candidate has a strong foothold in Maryland’s largest city that Mikulski calls home. With that in mind, “most of this race has been focused on Baltimore,” according to Rep. John Delaney, another Maryland Democrat who has not endorsed a candidate.
“It’s like they ceded their home bases and decided to go fight in the part of the state that’s got a lot of votes where neither of them have any natural base,” Delaney said Thursday.
Cummings, a popular Baltimore Democrat who had weighed a Senate run before deciding to remain in the House, agreed that the city will be pivotal, noting his district is far ahead of others in early voting.
“We have two good candidates,” Cummings said, “and one of the hardest things is trying to find somebody who can step into the shoes of Barbara Mikulski. People are trying to figure out how they put somebody into that seat that will do the kinds of things [she did] and has the kind of passion that she has.”
Cummings has not endorsed anyone but would be a valuable prize in the battle for Baltimore votes.
But Heller believes that both candidates still have yet to make that case.
“I don’t think either one has made an overly compelling case that they’d be a better candidate for Baltimore,” he said.
Endorsements for Van Hollen:
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.)
Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.)
The Washington Post
The Baltimore Sun
Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh
Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker
Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend
Linda Plummer, president of the Montgomery County NAACP chapter
Endorsements for Edwards:
Former NAACP president Ben Jealous
EMILY’s List
Democracy for America
Progressive Campaign Change Committee
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.)
Rep. Gwen Moore (D-Wis.)
Rep. Lacy Clay (D-Mo.)
Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Ill.)
Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.)
Baltimore City State’s Attorney Marilyn Mosby
Power players who have remained neutral:
President Obama
Vice President Joe Biden
Sen. Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.)
Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.)
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.)
House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.)