Dems hope to exploit GOP’s internal divisions

Democrats are looking to capitalize on former White House strategist Stephen Bannon’s war on establishment Republicans.

The Democrats hope to exploit the GOP infighting, which they believe could make it harder for the party to move legislation forward in Congress and give Democrats new opportunities in the midterms.

Bannon’s threats to primary GOP members of Congress he sees as too close to the party leadership are music to Democrats’ ears.

They see Bannon’s attacks on the GOP establishment, which are expected to be bolstered by donors and voters unhappy with Republicans’ legislative malaise, as a way to sap voter enthusiasm for the party’s incumbents. 

In their place, Democrats hope to face insurgent GOP candidates who will be less viable in general elections.

“They are going to be out of touch with a lot of their districts. Putting the most extreme person out there may be a strategy that works in some states but you can’t do that in districts across the battlefield,” one Washington Democratic strategist said.

“These are spots where moderates and independents will decide things and Republicans being pulled to the extreme part of their party will be a problem for them.” 

Congressional leadership in both parties ranks low in favorability with the general public, one main reason why attack ads regularly feature top Democrats and Republicans.

{mosads}An Economist/YouGov poll released Oct. 4 found that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has a 28 percent favorability rating nationally, about in line with Sen. Minority Leader Charles Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) 27 percent rating.

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) is right in line with those two with a 24 percent rating. But all three leaders are a significant step above Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-Ky.) 16 percent favorability. 

McConnell’s low marks among Republicans became a central theme in Alabama’s recent GOP Senate special election primary, where establishment support was used against Sen. Luther Strange (R-Ala.).

Former Alabama state Supreme Court chief justice Roy Moore campaigned against Strange, committing to voting McConnell out of Senate leadership and regularly blasting him as a member of the “swamp.”

Bannon, one of Moore’s biggest backers, is now openly targeting establishment Republicans. He’s aligned himself with a handful of insurgent candidates launching primary bids against incumbents in the House and Senate. 

Bannin’s coalition has also seen moderate Republicans stay on the sidelines, clearing the way for more conservative candidates. Tennessee Gov. Bill Haslam (R) announced on Thursday that he would not run for the seat to be vacated by Republican Sen. Bob Corker, a move that makes the more conservative Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) the front-runner.

Democrats have been happy to amplify Bannon’s message and suggest he’s pulling the strings in the GOP. And they point to recent comments unearthed by Politico from Nick Ayers, Vice President Pence’s chief of staff, who called for a “purge” of Republicans who don’t support Trump’s agenda as proof that things won’t get calmer inside the GOP any time soon.

Now House Democrats are getting in on the game, looking to heighten internal GOP tensions between Ryan and the base. 

Democrats’ latest effort comes in an ad push from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), House Democrats’ campaign arm. 

The ad looks to serve two purposes: riling up voters with attacks on the GOP’s unpopular plan to repeal ObamaCare, while also promoting a divide between “Paul Ryan and Washington’s establishment Republicans” and the “rest of us.”

“Paul Ryan and Washington’s Establishment Republicans: catering to drug companies and special interests; coming after your health care; increasing your out-of-pocket costs; a devastating age tax if you’re 50 or older; ending guaranteed coverage for preexisting conditions,” the ad’s narrator says. 

“Paul Ryan and the Washington Republicans — they’ll never change their ways, so the rest of us have to change our Congress.”

DCCC was even more explicit about using the GOP’s internal divisions against it in its statement on Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter’s (N.H.) retirement on Friday. 

“There is no doubt that Democrats will hold this seat, and we look forward to competing against whomever Steve Bannon nominates,” DCCC communications director Meredith Kelly said in a statement.

Republicans doubt that strategy will work as well in the House compared to the Senate, where Trump has engaged in open warfare against some of his party’s members. 

“House Democrats know how toxic Nancy Pelosi is with voters across the country and this is nothing more than an attempt to soothe her damaged ego,” National Republican Congressional Committee press secretary Jesse Hunt told The Hill about the DCCC’s push to tar Ryan.

Other Republicans tamped down concerns about tough primaries races, arguing that the competitive contests indicate grass roots energy that will boost whoever emerges to represent the party on Election Day. 

Andrew Surabian, Bannon’s former political adviser during his stint in the White House, pointed to the Republican Party’s control of both chambers of Congress, majorities that were built amid Tea Party primary challenges, as proof that insurgent primaries are anything but a death knell. 

“This is the same thing Democrats said in 2010, and Republicans took back the House. They said it in 2014, and Republicans took it back the Senate,” he said.

“And most famously, they said it during the 2016 presidential primaries and we all know how that worked out for the Dems. This is all wishful thinking from what has become a shrinking and broken down regional political party.”

But Democrats are so encouraged by the prospect of facing off against far-right candidates in general elections that they are musing about lending indirect support to Republicans they see as more beatable in a general election. A similar strategy played out in in 2012, when Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D-Mo.) campaign spent $1.7 million to promote Rep. Todd Akin’s (R) primary bid.

Akin won the primary, but McCaskill beat him in the general election by almost 16 points in what should have been one of the closest races of the cycle.

Other Democrats see similar meddling in Republicans primaries as far too risky.

“Us Democrats seem to think we’re eternally clever, but we’re not very good at learning from our failures, and we’re not very good at appreciating the bigger picture,” said Jesse Lehrich, a former campaign spokesman for Hillary Clinton. 

“The effort to elevate the most loathsome voices in the GOP is self-destructive, both for our party and for the country. We’re not winning seats from it — we’re just poisoning the national discourse. We did this in 2016 … spoiler alert: Donald Trump is president.”