Campaign

Campaign Report — What to expect when primaries return

by Max Greenwood, Caroline Vakil and Julia Manchester - 07/05/22 3:25 PM ET

FILE – A voter sits alone at a poll kiosk to cast his vote at a Mississippi Second Congressional District Primary election precinct, June 7, 2022, in Jackson, Miss. More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press.

Welcome to The Hill’s Campaign Report, tracking all things related to the 2022 midterm elections. You can expect this newsletter in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday leading up to November’s election.

Email us tips and feedback: Max Greenwood (mgreenwood@digital-staging.thehill.com), Julia Manchester (jmanchester@digital-staging.thehill.com), and Caroline Vakil (cvakil@digital-staging.thehill.com).

A slow month for primaries — then a very busy one

July is a bit of a desert as far as primaries are concerned. Only one state – Maryland – is slated to hold its nominating contests this month on July 19.

But the month is something of a midway point for the 2022 primary elections, and come August, the season will begin to ramp up once again with contests in Arizona, Kansas, Michigan and Missouri.

Here’s a few highlights of the races we’re watching in the coming months:

Arizona’s GOP Senate primary (Aug. 2): Five Republicans are fighting it out for the nomination to take on Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) in November, including state Attorney General Mark Brnovich, businessman Jim Lamon and ret. Air Force Major General Mick McGuire. But the person to beat, at least for now, appears to be Blake Masters, the venture capitalist backed by billionaire Peter Thiel and, as of last month, former President Trump.

Missouri’s GOP Senate primary (Aug. 2): A handful of prominent Republicans are running to succeed retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), but some top party officials fear that voters could tap former Gov. Eric Greitens for the nomination. Greitens resigned from the governor’s mansion in disgrace in 2018, but polling shows him with a slight advantage over his primary rivals.

Wisconsin’s Democratic Senate primary (Aug. 9): Democrats are eager to take out Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), an arch-conservative with a penchant for stirring controversy. For now, the frontrunner in the primary appears to be Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who has led in the polls for months. But a recent Marquette Law School poll showed Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry catching up after spending millions of dollars out of his own pocket.

Alaska’s Senate primary (Aug. 16): Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) is fighting to hold onto her seat after voting to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial. The former president is backing Kelly Tshibaka in the race. Of course, under Alaska’s new election process, Murkowski doesn’t necessarily need to beat Tshibaka in the primary. The top four vote-getters will advance to the November general election, which will be conducted using ranked-choice voting.

Wyoming’s GOP House primary (Aug. 16): Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) is facing a challenge from Trump-backed Republican Harriet Hageman after voting to impeach Trump last year for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot. That matchup has turned the race into a battle between two competing wings of the GOP and will almost certainly be seen as an indicator of just how loyal Republican voters remain to Trump.

New Hampshire GOP Senate primary (Sept. 13): The field of Republicans vying to take on Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) this year is crowded and lacks a clear favorite, with one recent poll showing a majority of voters are still undecided in the primary. Still, the eventual nominee will be charged with ousting one of the GOP’s top targets in the Senate this cycle.

A new opening for 2024 Republicans?

Trump may still loom large over the 2024 GOP presidential primary, but the hearings on the events surrounding the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol may provide an opening for other Republicans eyeing runs for the White House.

As The Hill’s Alex Bolton reports, “Presidential hopefuls including Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) have largely steered clear of defending Trump against the revelations of the Jan. 6 hearings, instead positioning themselves to capitalize if Trump is too compromised to run in 2024.”

Other would-be candidates like former Vice President Mike Pence have also largely avoided addressing the hearings head-on and have continued steadily positioning themselves for a potential presidential run.

Their bet is that the Jan. 6 hearings have already begun to deal a good deal of damage to Trump politically and have put the former president on the defensive before he’s even had a chance to announce whether he will seek the White House again in 2024.

Of course, few Republicans have been willing to publicly praise the hearings, which many have condemned as a partisan exercise designed to weaken the former president and the GOP.

But there have also been signs that Trump’s vice-like grip on the GOP and its voters has begun to weaken, even if just a little bit. And as more prospective candidates emerge on the scene, it may make it more difficult for Trump to hold onto his position as the Republican nominee-in-waiting.

“The nomination is going to be very wide open, I think,” former New Hampshire state Sen. Judd Gregg (R) told Alex. “I don’t see him sustaining his position as a majority leader of the party even if he wants to into 2024. There are too many people out there who want to run for president.”

GO FIGURE

Ahead of next week’s Federal Election Commission’s (FEC) filing deadline for second-quarter fundraising this year, some candidates are already starting to release figures on how much they banked in between April and June.

Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Mich.) campaign announced on Tuesday that she had raised $1.5 million for the second quarter, an impressive fundraising haul in one of the most competitive House races this election cycle.

Slotkin, who flipped her congressional seat blue in 2018, has won her races by close margins, including by close to 4 percentage points in 2018 and more than 3 percentage points in 2020.

Her seat is rated as a “toss up” by Cook Political Reports and the data website FiveThirtyEight gives Michigan’s 7th Congressional District a partisan lean of plus four points Republican. Caroline Vakil has more on her fundraising numbers and new TV ad here.

Another number catching our eye? More than $80 million.

That’s the amount of money that Democrats and groups fundraised only a week after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion. The figure, which was reported by The Associated Press, was recorded by the digital fundraising platform ActBlue.

The fundraising is an indication of how the issue is galvanizing Democrats, which had seen another fundraising sum of $12 million recorded by ActBlue shortly after a draft of the opinion overturning the landmark 1973 decision leaked earlier this year.

Money talks, but for how long? That’s the key question voters will answer later this year as people also weigh several other factors and key issues like President Biden’s lagging approval rating and inflation.

AD WATCH

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) raised eyebrows after he released an ad, which aired in Florida beginning on Monday, where he suggested residents come to California and painted the state as a haven from restricted liberties in the Sunshine State.

“It’s Independence Day, so let’s talk about what’s going on in America. Freedom? It’s under attack in your state. Your Republican leaders? They’re banning books, making it harder to vote, restricting speech in classrooms, even criminalizing women and doctors. I urge all of you livin’ in Florida to join the fight. Or join us in California, where we still believe in freedom. Freedom of speech, freedom to choose, freedom from hate and the freedom to love. Don’t let them take your freedom,” Newsom says in the 30-second ad.

Newsom is up for reelection this November after surviving a recall bid last year. But the governor’s ad in Florida is fueling rumors that he’s looking beyond the Golden State and eyeing the presidency, despite saying in an interview last year that the presidency has “100 percent never been on my radar” and “was never a childhood dream.”

Over in Texas: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is also gearing up for a reelection bid against Democratic challenger and former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), and the Texas incumbent’s campaign has poured millions into media ad buys – close to $20 million alone within the span of a week.

Abbott’s campaign announced its first Hispanic media buy of $2.75 million, later followed by the campaign’s first broadcast and cable buy of $8.8 million. His campaign is also funneling $8.15 million into digital advertising.

A CBS News-YouGov Texas poll released last Thursday shows Abbott leading O’Rouke by 8 percentage points among adults in Texas that were polled.

ICYMI