Why Democrats are feeling better about their Senate odds

Democrats are growing increasingly optimistic about their chances of holding the Senate this year amid a spate of favorable public polling and signs that some of the GOP’s top candidates are struggling to get their campaigns off the ground.

To be sure, Democrats have zero margin for error. The Senate is split 50-50 and any misstep or error — forced or unforced — could hand Republicans the majority in November. 

But for now, at least, strategists and operatives on both sides of the aisle say Democrats may have a real shot of defying the odds in what should be a brutal political environment for President Biden’s party. 

“I wouldn’t suggest taking a victory lap just yet, but slowly but surely, you’re seeing the signs that this may not be so bad after all, at least in the Senate,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). “It’s certainly better than it was a few months ago, when it looked like it was going to be a wash.”

There are several factors that Democrats believe are working in their favor. The party’s Senate nominees have emerged as formidable campaigners, and many have a solid cash advantage. Party officials are also hoping that recent accomplishments in Washington — most notably the passage of a sweeping tax and climate law — might help energize their base voters ahead of November.

Republicans, meanwhile, have nominated a series of first-time candidates – all of whom were endorsed by former President Trump in their primaries – who have struggled to turn their races into referendums on Democratic control of Washington, as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had hoped, and failed so far to keep pace with their Democratic rivals in fundraising.

In Georgia, for instance, Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker has been beset by a series of gaffes and controversies, including the revelation that he has three children that he did not publicly disclose despite railing against absentee fathers. 

Meanwhile, celebrity physician Mehmet Oz, the Republican Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, has been repeatedly mocked by his Democratic rival, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, over everything from his history of promoting dubious medical claims to the fact that he moved to the state only shortly before announcing his Senate campaign. 

Oz also faced a new round of ridicule last week after a video resurfaced online in which he complains about the price of “crudité” at a “Wegners” grocery store. It’s unclear if he meant to refer to Wegmans or Redner’s grocery chains.

“We keep talking about this idea of a red wave,” one longtime Republican operative said. “Unless candidates start getting out there and talking about their agenda, what they’re going to do, I just don’t see the red wave materializing – not like it should.”

McConnell signaled as much last week, acknowledging that flipping control of the Senate this year is a taller order for Republicans than winning back the House, noting that “candidate quality” could make a big difference.

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell said on Thursday, according to NBC News. “Senate races are just different, they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”

Recent polling has also offered some bright spots for Democrats.

A recent survey from Public Opinion Strategies found Fetterman leading Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate race by an 18 points. On Thursday, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, shifted the Pennsylvania Senate race from a toss-up into its “lean Democrat” column.

In Arizona, Sen. Mark Kelly (D), one of the most vulnerable Democrats seeking reelection this year, is running 8 points ahead of his Trump-endorsed rival Blake Masters, a venture capitalist with the backing of billionaire Peter Thiel, according to a Fox News poll released on Thursday.

Two polls last week found Democrat Mandela Barnes leading Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. 

Even in states that once appeared less competitive, Democrats appear to be holding their own. A University of North Florida poll out this week showed Rep. Val Demings (Fla.), the state’s likely Democratic Senate nominee, leading Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) by 4 points, while another survey from the GOP polling firm Cygnal found Rep. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) and Democrat Cheri Beasley tied in the Senate race in North Carolina.

That’s not to say that the Democrats have an easy path ahead of them. Inflation — consistently named as a top concern for voters — remains at its highest level in decades, and there are signs that the U.S. may be teetering on the brink of a recession. 

Democrats also have history working against them: the party in power almost always loses ground in Congress in midterm elections and President Biden’s approval rating has been stuck underwater for most of the past year. And while Democratic candidates in some of the most competitive Senate races appear to be outperforming Biden’s numbers for now, the question remains whether they can hold onto that lead through Election Day.

There’s also the matter of outside spending. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has already dropped some $36 million on TV spots this cycle, while the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has only spent a fraction of that to date, though the group is poised to ramp up its advertising this fall.

“You can’t get cocky. This is still a tough environment and things can change, and I suspect there’s a good chance they will,” one Democratic strategist involved in Senate races said, noting how quickly the party’s Senate prospects have turned around in recent weeks. “If the outlook can change that fast, they can also swing back the other way.”

Still, there are signs that Republicans are taking notice of Democrats’ recent gains. Senate Leadership Fund, a top GOP super PAC aligned with McConnell, announced this week that it is reserving $28 million in television and radio advertising in Ohio to bolster author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance in his Senate bid against Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio).

The ad reservations mark a major escalation in spending for national Republicans as they look to hold onto the seat of retiring Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio). 

J.B. Poersch, the president of Senate Majority PAC, the main Democratic Senate super PAC, cast the new spending as a “rescue mission” to bail out a candidate that has failed to keep pace with his Democratic opponent in fundraising. 

“Mitch McConnell himself just said that candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome in Senate races,” Poersch said. “And we agree.”