Democrats lead generic congressional ballot by 4 points: poll

Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 4 points with Election Day less than six weeks away, according to a new poll. 

A Yahoo News-YouGov poll released Friday found 45 percent of respondents plan to vote for a Democrat in their congressional district, while 41 percent plan to support a Republican. Democrats’ lead is 1 point narrower from three weeks ago, when the party led in the poll by 5 points. 

The party holds a tighter lead of 3 points among those who said they will definitely vote in September, 47 percent to 44 percent, and a 1-point lead among those who said they are paying a lot of attention to the campaign, 48 percent to 47 percent. 

The poll also found respondents reporting increasing concerns over inflation, with 60 percent saying it is getting worse. Just more than 50 percent said so in a poll in late August. 

The Federal Reserve has repeatedly raised interest rates in an effort to get inflation under control and has shown a willingness to continue to do so even if it results in an economic downturn. Economic analysts have expressed concerns about the effects of the Fed’s moves on the economy. 

The number of people who said inflation is getting worse includes almost 7 in 10 independents, up from 54 percent last month. The percentage of Democrats and Republicans who said it is getting worse also increased by 7 points and 6 points, respectively, since last month. 

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More than 90 percent of respondents said inflation is a “very” or “somewhat” important issue when considering this year’s midterm elections. 

The poll was conducted from Sept. 23-27 among 1,556 U.S. adults. The margin of error was about 2.7 points. 

Election watcher FiveThirtyEight’s analysis shows Republicans are poised to regain control of the House, but Democrats are likely to maintain the majority in the Senate.