Republican leads in Oklahoma governor’s race: poll

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) leads his Democratic opponent, Joy Hofmeister, by 9 points in a new Emerson College survey, a more comfortable lead for the incumbent after recent surveys showed a tightening race.

The poll, which was released on Monday, eight days before Election Day, found Stitt garnered the support of 49 percent of likely voters, compared to Hofmeister’s 40 percent.

Oklahoma is a reliably red state and has elected Republicans to the governorship in the past three elections, but the GOP is hoping to avoid a Democratic upset in next week’s midterms after other polls showed a closer-than-expected contest.

“Hofmeister is leading among Independent voters 43 percent to 33 percent, but that is not enough to make up for the Republican advantage in Oklahoma,” said Spencer Kimball, Emerson College Polling’s executive director. “Stitt leads among Republican voters 75 percent to 15 percent, who are expected to be about 52 percent of the total vote.” 

Stitt also benefits from a positive favorability rating, with 49 percent of likely voters in the new poll indicating they had a favorable opinion of him, while 47 percent had a negative view.

Hofmeister’s favorability rating, meanwhile, is underwater, with 43 percent indicating a favorable view, compared to 47 percent who had an unfavorable view of her. Eight percent were unsure.

Most voters say they’ve made a final decision in the race. Eighty-eight percent said they will definitely vote for their candidate, and only 12 percent said there is a chance they will change their mind.

Recent polls have signaled alarm for the GOP, with one showing Hofmeister leading by 7 points, and multiple others suggesting the candidates are locked in a tight race.

The Republican Governors Association waded into the race earlier this month by launching a major ad buy in the state attacking Hofmeister, who has overseen Oklahoma’s public schools since 2015.

Like other areas of the country, the economy clocked in as the top issue in the race, with 43 percent of likely voters in Emerson’s poll indicating it is the most important topic to them.

But education ranked No. 2 at 15 percent, which was followed by abortion access at 11 percent.

Education has been cast as a central issue in the race, as Stitt has made supporting school vouchers a major part of his campaign.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 25-28 with 1,000 likely Oklahoma voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percent.